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Merz's emotional outburst was significant, but it left many Germans cold...
The continent's three major players have come together to support Ukraine. But will it be enough with their struggling economies, disaffected electorates, and pro-Kremlin and pro-Trump extremists aiming to rise to power?
" Sometimes when I wake up in the morning I ask myself: Is this just a bad dream? No, it's a nightmare. And this has happened every night for the last 4 years. Not just for Ukraine, but for all of us!" The statement is from Friedrich Merz, who was barely holding back tears as he stood next to Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin a few days ago.
The German Chancellor had gathered the leaders of Europe's key countries and institutions - a coalition of the willing and the desperate - as they tried again to strengthen Ukraine's position in the face of Donald Trump's alliance with Vladimir Putin.
Merz's emotional outburst was significant, but it left many Germans cold. Even before he took office, many voters had decided not to give him a chance. Over a long career in politics, plus some business ventures, he has made a number of enemies.
Merc is rarely treated positively by the media. He occasionally makes harsh statements. He promises a lot and so far in domestic politics he has not fulfilled his promises.
However, the criticism of him is, and I dare say this as an ardent Germanophile, that of a typical German who only complains. Merc is the best thing Europe has at the moment in its last attempt to save liberal democracy.
Alarm bells should have sounded as early as February, when US Vice President JD Vance launched a scathing attack on European values at the Munich Security Conference. He made clear the Trump administration's support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was attacking conservative circles in Washington.
The AfD is not that far from taking power within a few years, which is exactly what Trump wants, along with other European far-right parties, including Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
Throughout 2025, many people in Germany and across Europe have been hoping that somehow things would return to “normal.” The publication last week of the new US National Security Strategy has dispelled any kind of wishful thinking.
At first, Merkel reacted cautiously, but as it became increasingly clear that Washington now saw Moscow as a reliable business partner, ally, and even friend, the chancellor admitted: “Pax Americana is over!” Eight decades of assumptions about American support for European stability and democracy were overturned.
“It no longer exists as we once knew it!” he added. Merck also suggested that a US withdrawal from NATO could now be just a matter of time. Two types of talks are currently taking place in the German capital. The private one between security and defense officials, which I have been aware of from time to time, and which acknowledge and speak openly about the many risks.
Officials are clear that Russia is already waging a hybrid war on Europe — through espionage, sabotage (the case of the DHL plane with an explosive device on board is just the beginning, they say), disinformation, and cyberattacks. And they are preparing for a real war.
The production of ammunition, tanks and drones is now much greater in all EU and NATO member states combined. Some 1.5 million soldiers are preparing to go to the battlefield. All this is happening while the US makes it clear that it will not defend Europe.
Even the US nuclear umbrella is no longer considered reliable. The dilemma is how much information to reveal to the public. And it's not just national security concerns, but also finding the right balance between awareness and panic.
As one German official put it, when asked if he could sleep at night: “ My biggest worry is complacency. Many people are not understanding the new dynamics. The problem is not just Russia or China, but also Trump. If I stopped and thought too much, I wouldn’t be able to sleep. So I just try to get on with my job... ”
For now, publicly, Plan A remains in effect: embrace the Americans closely. Of course, express concerns about their behavior, but do not warn that a break with them is imminent. Keep your anger bottled up and shower Trump with praise.
This, as one official admitted, creates a legitimacy problem, “because we are not being honest with our people, and our efforts to stay on Trump’s side look like servility to him.” However, they have no other choice, because it will take years to become militarily self-sufficient, if that is ever achieved. “Nobody wants to talk about a Plan B because we don’t have one. Everyone knows how dependent we are on the US and we will remain so for years to come,” he points out. However, Germany is rearming rapidly.
By 2029, defense spending will be equivalent to that of France and the United Kingdom combined (Berlin's frustration with London's slow pace of spending growth is starting to become apparent).
If we surrender to Putin now, he will dictate Europe's security for years to come. If there is one positive side, however, it is the degree to which Europe's three major players are coming together.
The leaders of Germany, France and Britain share the weak economies they manage, an angry electorate and pro-Kremlin and pro-Trump extremists seeking to come to power.
Unlike Keir Starmer, with his large parliamentary majority won just 18 months ago, and Emmanuel Macron, who enjoyed goodwill and great powers until he abused them, Merc had no political credit from the start.
And today he is the one who is showing the greatest strength. One of his associates says of him: “Merc has courage. He is unpredictable. That is something extraordinary for a modern German politician.” So Europe now has a strong new Germany. But will that be enough? / Adapted from “The Paper”
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