FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Who will pay for this corridor that includes rail lines, digital infrastructure and oil pipelines?
Klaus Dodds is Professor of Geopolitics at Royal Holloway University in London, and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences. He has written many books, the latest of which has just been released and is titled "Border Wars. The conflicts that will define our future".
Professor, what are the conflicts that will define our future?
They will happen especially where liberal democracies face the fact that our public cultures are increasingly shaped by social media, sponsored by hostile third parties or funded by special interest groups.
Other boundaries that will be challenged include areas that national governments and others perceive to be of great strategic and resource-based interest. Our shared planetary assets, such as Antarctica and the oceans, are likely to face further competition for access to fisheries and potentially minerals.
The moon and outer space may be the next battlegrounds as we find that our international agreements of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s urgently need updating. Some of this may be about finding resources, but our satellite communication systems also depend on the ability to exploit and secure access and use of space. The possibility of future geopolitical conflicts on the Moon and in space cannot be ruled out. Low Earth orbit is a very sensitive border region.
Apart from Ukraine and Gaza, what are the other hot spots where tensions need to be reduced immediately?
The ones that separate India, China and Pakistan, 3 nuclear armed states with territorial disputes and unresolved grievances. These common areas are remote, at high altitude, but also very valuable for other reasons, such as access to water.
The most serious crisis is that between India and China, who continue to clash and strengthen their respective positions. Thousands of troops have gathered around the Line of Control (LOC) and there have been occasional clashes between border forces. It is worth noting that a short war took place there in 1962.
Another interesting case concerns Venezuela and Guyana. The border dispute is still open, and Caracas claims 2/3 of Guyana. The United Nations recently called for restraint, fearing that Venezuela's nationalist government is stoking populist sentiment and mobilizing anger against Guyana's plans to develop oil and gas resources in what it describes as "Venezuelan waters."
Even now as we speak, the two Poles are the subject of disputes between the world's superpowers...
For now, the Arctic region has been spared from any conflict, and until recently has been described as an area of cooperation. Intergovernmental forums such as the Arctic Council have played an important role in helping states find areas of cooperation in areas such as environmental protection, science and sustainable development.
What could happen is a conflict over access and mobility in Arctic waters. The Central Arctic Ocean is gradually opening due to the continuous melting of sea ice, and international waters are very wide. It is likely that non-Arctic states, such as China and India, will wish to exercise their rights in the Central Arctic Ocean in the future.
This could cause tensions with Arctic states and indigenous peoples, who want to maintain their leading role in the region. But most of the Arctic's resources lie within the territories and exclusive economic zones of the Arctic states, and despite tensions between NATO and Russia, the Arctic has so far remained relatively untouched. But there are other potential hotbeds, such as the remote Svalbard archipelago, where Russia and Norway have clashed over what can and cannot be done there.
In your new book "The First Book of Geopolitics", you write: "Some of the most dramatic moments in geopolitics are characterized by political leaders looking at maps?"...
There are no shortage of such men even today. They do this to reassure the public that all is not as bad as it seems (think of American statesmen in the Vietnam War era) or to show their territorial and strategic ambitions.
Map content, meanwhile, may be deliberately misleading or silent: cartographers may be encouraged to deny the existence of unknown entities such as Palestine and Taiwan, and to depict the expansionist ambitions of their sponsors, such as China's 9 or 10 Line in the Sea of South China.
National maps are invariably geopolitical, in the sense that they clarify where national territory begins and ends. For example, the Argentine ones will permanently represent the Malvinas Islands (or Falkland Islands) and an Argentine Antarctic Territory.
Another great tool of geopolitics is infrastructure. America aims to counter China's proposed Silk Road with a mega-project that starts in India, runs through the Middle East and ends in Europe. Do you think this is a workable plan in the face of ongoing crises?
Këto projekte, janë dëshmi e ambicies gjeopolitike dhe arrogancës. Dihet që shumë prej tyre janë zvogëluar, braktisur ose reformuar për shkak të kostove, konfliktit dhe korrupsionit. Infrastruktura është gjeopolitike, pasi fuqia e saj politike projektohet në mënyrë dixhitale dhe fizike përmes kabllove nënujore, hekurudhave, anijeve, avionëve, tubacioneve të gazit e naftës etj.
Siç e ilustron më së miri konflikti në Ukrainë, ka shumë arsye pse Rusia po sulmon termocentralet, digat dhe portet ukrainase. Prandaj nuk është për t’u habitur që në dritën e Rrugës së Mëndafshit të Kinës, Shtetet e Bashkuara të mbështesin një korridor Indi-Lindje të Mesme-Evropë.
Kjo që përfshin Iranin dhe Izraelin, do të ndërlikojë progresin e mundshëm, por ajo që do ta pengojë më shumë është kostoja. Kush do të paguajë për këtë korridor që përfshin linjat hekurudhore, infrastrukturën dixhitale dhe tubacionet e naftës? Ka shumë sponsorë, dhe e ardhmja e tij do të varet kryesisht nga ndarja e një narrative të përbashkët strategjike dhe gjeopolitike nga të gjithë mbështetësit e këtij projekti.
Kur të heshtin armët, si do të arrihet të përfshihet sërish në dialog me Perëndimin Rusia pas Putinit?
Siç kanë paralajmëruar shumë qeveri të Evropës Lindore, edhe nëse do të kishte një lloj armëpushimi në Ukrainë, pyetja që duhet t’i bëjmë vetes është:Ku do të përfundojmë? Një Rusi pas Putinit, mund të mos jetë më e lehtë për t’u menaxhuar. Kjo s’do të thotë se është i pashmangshëm despotizëm i ri.
Por duhet ta pranojmë se Rusia e Putinit, e ka shpërbërë qëllimisht shoqërinë civile. Një poshtërim në Ukrainë, mund të shërbejë si një shkas për ndryshime thelbësore. Por edhe të mbeturit një vend autoritar, nuk do të thotë se Rusia nuk mund të llogarisë mbështetjen e aleatëve në mbarë botën.
Prandaj do të priret të përjashtojë ri-integrimin...
Nëse mbizotëron qasja në Ukrainë dhe ne duhet të shpresojmë se kjo do të ndodhë brenda këtij viti do të ketë sfida të mëdha mbi mënyrën se si Perëndimi do ta trajtojë Rusinë.
Një rrezik është që bota të ndahet më tej në perëndimore dhe jo-perëndimore, dhe që koalicionet rivale të bashkëpunojnë me njëri-tjetrin në mënyra që mund ta bëjnë gjithnjë e më pak të mundshëm ri-integrimin.
Për shembull në Arktik, Rusia e ka përdorur epokën pas sanksioneve për të ndërtuar marrëdhënie gjithnjë e më të ngushta me Kinën, Indinë dhe Lindjen e Mesme. Ndërsa kjo nuk kaloi pa shqetësime gjeopolitike mbi varësitë e reja, i dha gjithsesi mundësi Federatës.
të kapërcente sanksionet e ish-partnerëve perëndimorë. Dhe edhe nëse merr fund lufta në Ukrainë, Rusia ka të ngjarë të mbetet një palë e tretë armiqësore, me pakënaqësi të vazhdueshme për zgjerimin e fundit të NATO-s, me hyrjen e Finlandës dhe Suedisë.
Ne pamë në Teheran skenat gëzimi pas sulmit hakmarrës ndaj Izraelit, të cilat u shfrytëzuan nga regjimi i Ajatollahëve. Si përdoret gjeopolitika për qëllime propagandistike?
In the case of Iran, the Islamic Republic's geopolitical identity is influenced by its pursuit of regional hegemony, distrust of non-Shia Arab governments, and deep antipathy toward the state of Israel. Some may be familiar with the so-called "Greater Iran" map, which includes the vast expansion of the Tehran regime. In general, geopolitics can lend itself well to populist, nationalist, and authoritarian agendas for several reasons.
Which ones?
First, since the term was first coined in the 1890s, geopolitics has often been used by militaries and civil societies with a strong territorial identity. Second, geopolitics was and is very visual. Maps are very important and help cultivate geopolitical sensibility, demarcating national territories and playing a role in visualizing revanchist aspirations.
Finally, geopolitics is rooted in popular culture, which may mean that we can find traces of it in movies, television programs, books, social media, and public demonstrations, including protests./ Adapted from: " Pamphlet ", From: " Huffington Post Italy "
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