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Political change is linked to the outcome of the war in Ukraine and internal stability
Reforms in Russia can only happen if the regime faces a serious crisis after a defeat in Ukraine. The biggest threat comes from the elites, but so far Vladimir Putin keeps them under tight control, explains a political scientist from the East-West Institute.
What might Russia’s future look like? Combining the outcome of the war in Ukraine with domestic stability, four possible scenarios emerge, developed by Mikhail Troitskiy of Tufts University in the US. He drew on major historical events such as the October Revolution of 1917, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis that led to the overthrow of Nikita Khrushchev, the failed intervention in Afghanistan, and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. These crises were usually caused by a combination of three factors: economic crisis, military overstretch abroad, and conflicts within the elite. Russia’s domestic stability and military success in Ukraine are interrelated.
Scenario 1: Russia wins the war and remains stable domestically
A victory would mean that Russia retains large parts of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine accepts restrictions on sovereignty, and some Western sanctions are lifted. In this case, the government remains hard-line, repression continues, and foreign policy toward Europe becomes more aggressive. There is no incentive for change, and normalization is highly unlikely.
Scenario 2: Russia fails in Ukraine, but remains stable
Russia fails to achieve its military objectives, Ukraine retains the ability to act, and sanctions continue. Moscow may halt aggressive propaganda, withdraw nuclear threats, and offer compensation for war damages, signaling a more moderate foreign policy. A limited normalization begins.
Scenario 3: Russia wins the war, but faces a power struggle
The economy is in crisis, inflation and unemployment are rising, and conflicts arise between the military, security services, and political elites. After Putin's possible departure, a power struggle erupts. Rival groups seek support abroad, while China maintains a cautious stance. There may be a partial pragmatic normalization.
Scenario 4: Russia loses the war and enters a deep crisis
This scenario offers the greatest chance for real political change. The triggers are military defeat, economic collapse, population discontent, and elite disintegration. In this case, Russia distances itself from the politics of the Putin era and reformist forces could come to power.
The path to normalization and the risks to stability
True normalization seems possible only after a military defeat that leads to internal crisis. However, credibility remains an issue, as the West may remain skeptical and Russia may return to aggressive policies. The Russian political system relies more on personal power than on legal institutions.
According to researchers William Dixon and Maksym Veznosiuk, Putin's regime in 2026 remains stable despite war and economic isolation. They rely on Milan Svolik's theory of authoritarianism, according to which a dictator must manage two risks: rivalry with elites and dissatisfaction with the population.
Putin has built a system that minimizes these risks. Elites face potential punishment and find it difficult to coordinate. They are “locked in” to the system because of travel restrictions and the risk of losing their wealth.
After the Wagner rebellion in 2023, the Kremlin strengthened parallel military structures. The National Guard (Rosgvardiya) is being transformed into a large force that reports directly to the president and can be used even against the regular army.
The old social contract, welfare in exchange for political passivity, no longer exists. It has been replaced by repression in the cities and financial incentives in rural areas.
In the cities, state control increases, while in rural areas, high salaries are offered to soldiers and jobs in the military industry. This creates an economic dependence on war.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev calls this model "deathonomics."
Defense and security spending accounts for about 38% of the state budget. The war creates jobs and stabilizes the poorest regions, becoming a key factor for the stability of the system.
According to economist Alexandra Prokopenko, the Russian economy is not expected to collapse, but it is not expected to recover either. In the foreseeable future, Russia is likely to continue the war in Ukraine. /Adapted from FAZ /
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