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As Merz is crowned chancellor, Europe must prepare for its French-style German leader...
Just hours after sailing to victory in Germany's national elections in February, Friedrich Merz took a position that could well define his future term as chancellor.
During the traditional televised post-election debate, the Christian Democrat delivered a 2-minute monologue on security, declaring that Europe must - as an "absolute priority" - become independent from the United States as soon as possible.
He went on to question whether NATO would still exist by the time of the next June summit and warned that the EU may need to "create independent defence capabilities much sooner".
The self-proclaimed "transatlanticist" and leader of Germany's most pro-American party seemed to be turning his back on "Uncle Sam."
Since the election, it has become clear that Merz touched the heart of Paris, where officials have been “very enthusiastic about the views he has expressed on geostrategic issues,” said a European diplomat.
Merz's connection to Macron goes beyond geopolitics and his personal relationship with France, dating back to a student exchange in Auvergne. It encompasses his governing style, passionate Europhilia, and even the economic policy of his coalition.
As he is to be crowned German chancellor by the Bundestag on Tuesday, Macron also warns of an EU with more French flavour.
The state, that's all
Merz's push for European leadership and a centralization of foreign policy powers like that of the president is indeed very French.
While all European decisions in France are made through the president's office, Macron can act much more decisively on foreign affairs. The division of EU responsibilities between ministries and coalition partners made this difficult for Germany. The foreign ministry - usually held by a junior coalition partner - had often positioned itself against the chancellor "as a kind of corrective body," said Johann Wadephul, the CDU's incoming foreign minister.
That could now change, he added. Merz's CDU is the first party in almost 60 years to control all three ministries that coordinate Germany's EU policy - the chancellorship, the economy ministry and the foreign ministry (which includes the Europe minister).
This could help improve foreign and EU policy and reduce German abstentions from EU-level votes due to domestic disagreements. The CDU trio of Merz, Wadephul and Economics Minister Katherina Reiche could also cohesively preach Merz’s gospel abroad in the same way that Macron, Le Drian and Le Maire spread the president’s message at his peak.
Although Merz will not have the final say on all contested files, the chancellor will gain coordinating powers. State Minister Thorsten Frei will hold weekly sessions with the new ministers to review future EU legislation and defuse conflicts.
However, the SPD relies on influencing European issues in those meetings and through the veto powers of its ministries, above all, the powerful Finance Ministry, said Johannes Schraps, a leading SPD MP for EU policy.
Brotherhood, equality
What has really impressed Germany's allies is the rise of Macron-style European initiatives now coming from Berlin, directed towards Paris, Brussels and Warsaw, which Merz wants to treat "on the same level".
Macron, a passionate European, introduced a “new partnership” between the EU’s largest members in his Sorbonne speech seven years ago. His outstretched hand has remained unanswered ever since, with successive chancellors showing little appetite for it – until Merz.
"There is a lot of hope and enthusiasm based on the communication so far," the European diplomat said.
The day after his inauguration, Merz will travel to Paris for his first traditional visit as chancellor - but it will now be a working meeting, officials said. He and Macron, who are said to be in closer contact than has been publicly acknowledged, are preparing a broad joint agenda covering multiple policy areas. The first part will be presented on Wednesday, focusing on competitiveness and energy.
But for the diplomat, the real news is the return to proactive coordination: “The idea is to put the Franco-German relationship back at the heart of EU politics, to then bring about changes in Brussels.”
While this reflects Merz's preference for charting Europe's course with other government leaders, he also coordinates closely with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, another CDU member.
The two have spoken almost every weekend "over the past two years," said an official from Europe's center-right party family, the European People's Party (EPP).
Francallemagne
The traditional policy differences between Germany and its allies are unlikely to disappear through this. But its policies under Merz seem closer than ever to those of Macron.
In addition to aligning on geostrategy, including openness to expanding France's nuclear umbrella in Europe, his coalition approved a 1 trillion euro defense and infrastructure package earlier this year, overturning decades of German fiscal conservatism.
The result is a strikingly French combination of Gaullist geostrategy and muscular industrial policy, which has already influenced EU policy, as Germany pushed for easier European debt rules.
“Maybe we have all become a little more French,” said Johannes Lindner, director of the Jacques Delors Center. This may simply reflect the fact that Macron has set the “right agenda” on European sovereignty in economic and security terms, he added.
It is unclear what policy this will entail. In a recent paper, Lindner and his co-authors note that Germany’s coalition agreement takes a deliberately ambiguous stance on many European policies, including the French favorite theme of joint debt.
“There is a lack of forward-looking European political momentum,” said Chantal Kopf, the Greens’ top MEP for European affairs. However, von Ondarza sees Merz’s willingness to coordinate only with partners as “an important sign.”
In fact, much will depend on Merz's own actions.
In his speech at the EPP congress last week in Valencia, he set the bar high by promising: "We will be ready to form a government, which will be one of the strongest European supporters you have ever seen from my country." / Adapted Pamphlet from EurActive /
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