FLASH
Shkruar nga Marco Varvello
Former Russian oligarch and dissident: The Russian dictator has an acute need for permanent war. After Ukraine, he will attack Europe...
Mikhail Khodorkovsky smiles often as he answers questions from his elegant office in the heart of London. His eyes sparkle with a hint of irony behind thin, steel-framed glasses.
He is cunning in his response to the central question of these days, oscillating between cautious optimism about the negotiations and pessimism.
Donald Trump declares that they have never been so close to peace. Does he believe it? The answer is a firm and reasoned: “No.” The time has not yet come. Putin will only retreat temporarily, trying again to penetrate deeper, after 4 years of attacks on Ukraine have not given him the expected victory.
"Vladimir Putin has long abandoned the pragmatism that characterized his first years in power ," says his most prominent opponent, still a key figure on the international stage.
According to him, Donbass is for the Kremlin a matter of ideology, principle and survival. Propaganda
it has gone so far that it can no longer be retreated.
In theory, everyone wants to end the war.
" And really, this is the ideal moment: the current American administration is very friendly towards Moscow, and Europe is more engaged than ever in talks. But the conflict has moved to another dimension. Now even Zelensky cannot give up any territory without causing a deep institutional and social crisis in Ukraine, " he says.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky - the former richest man in Russia, the 1990s oligarch who built the Yukos oil empire - leaves no room for doubt. His clash with the president landed him in a gulag: a decade of suffering in Siberian prisons, before his migration to Britain.
“Putin is like a typical gambler: he always waits until he gets the decisive card. He is doing the same with Trump now, ” declares Putin’s opponent. However, he remains ultimately optimistic: “Sooner or later, the war will end. Of course, don’t dream of peace for Christmas.
But Putin is facing an economy on the brink of recession, a shortage of soldiers and a shortage of labor. The military has strengthened the elite, but he is not liked by the generals or the upper classes, who are suffering from falling living standards.
Popular support is strong and the narrow circle of loyalists is being kept in check with an iron fist. However, even Putin cannot push it on indefinitely...”
Let's return to the negotiations, the summits, Zelensky's trips, the American role and the latest developments. According to Khodorkovsky, Putin will be forced to compromise. And this will probably happen before the mid-term elections in the US (November next year), which could weaken Trump, currently a key asset for the Kremlin.
As the sovereignty of Donbas is not negotiable by either Moscow or Kiev, the only way out remains a “demilitarized zone” under international control, an item that is already on the negotiating table. “Otherwise, there is no other way,” says the Russian dissident.
" It would become a no-man's land. Of course, it can be rebuilt, defended. But this requires a large military presence against Russian advances. The Europeans and Americans do not want to land on the ground. NATO guarantees are only on paper. The alternative? No-fly zones over them would be a reliable deterrent even for Moscow," says Khodorkovsky.
In the Ukrainian labyrinth, peace proposals clash with history and ideology, a window of hope still remains open. The guns will fall silent, business will revive: reconstruction attracts Trump, while economic projects could reopen Russia to the West.
But the Kremlin's sworn enemy issues a strong warning to Europeans: " Putin has solved 4 internal crises in the last 20 years with military attacks: Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine. After this war, the Russian system will face an economic-social restructuring. Then he will create 'enemies at the gate' again and you Europeans are right there, on the Russian borders...".
Awareness is growing: increasing military spending, the return of compulsory military service. Well-known figures, such as the head of the armed forces in Great Britain, Richard Knight, warn: “ We and our children must prepare for war with Russia! ”. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte does not hide either: “Russia could attack a NATO member within the next 5 years!”.
Khodorkovsky spreads his arms like a man who has already surrendered, like one who has once felt the perverse machinery of violence on his back: " You Europeans have lost your defensive mentality. 80 years of peace is a beautiful dream, but for warriors it is weakness. Putin's Russia can only stop in the face of a strong and militarily united Europe. Teach your young people to defend their homeland, even with weapons. This is not nationalism or causing conflicts, but self-defense . "
Our conversation ended after an hour. At the end, we asked him about pro-Putinists in Europe, especially on the far right.
He smiles ironically, just like at the beginning: "After Mussolini, Hitler or Franco, it seems clear that many of you still feel the lack of 'strong men'."/ Adapted from "Pamphlet", by "La Stampa"
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