FLASH
Shkruar nga Gideon Rachman
Netanyahu's path is a recipe for permanent war against a backdrop of rapidly declining international support for Israel, including the US...
Going to war with Iran was not a popular decision in the US. But in Israel the conflict enjoys overwhelming support, with over 80 percent of the public supporting the decision to attack. No one has done more to argue that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The day after the first airstrikes on Tehran, he rejoiced that the “current combination of forces,” meaning the US participation, “allows us to do what I have hoped to do for 40 years.”
But the reality is that Netanyahu’s much-anticipated war with Iran has not made his country any safer. In fact, it is putting Israel’s long-term security at risk. There are two main reasons for this. The first is that, for decades, the greatest guarantee of Israeli security has been strong bipartisan support in the United States. But the Netanyahu government’s actions, first in Gaza and now in Iran, are draining that support.
The second reason is that the Iran war shows every sign of going badly. The quick and decisive victory that both Trump and Netanyahu talked about has not happened. Instead, the war has escalated in ways that the US and Israel did not anticipate, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz.
A prolonged war poses a direct threat to Israeli soldiers and civilians, as evidenced by the Iranian missiles that hit a city in southern Israel over the weekend. It would also further damage Israel's crucial alliance with the US.
Netanyahu's supporters argue that Iran posed such an existential threat to Israel that the prime minister had no choice but to ignore other issues and act. But some of Israel's leading Iran watchers dispute the idea that the Islamic republic's nuclear program posed an immediate threat.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of Iran research for Israel’s defense intelligence agency, argues that the previous Iranian leadership, now largely dead, had “cautious and calculating” actors. They reportedly signaled in the negotiations that Iran was prepared to significantly reduce the country’s stockpile of enriched uranium, a critical component in the development of nuclear weapons. According to him, American negotiators seemed to have difficulty fully understanding the technical and strategic implications of this offer.
Analysts like Citrinowicz believe that the greatest long-term strategic threat to Israel is not Iran, but the potential loss of the American support on which Israel relies. The erosion of that support is now underway.
On February 27, the day before the Iran war began, a poll showed that, for the first time since Gallup began asking the question, more Americans sympathized with the Palestinians than with the Israelis. Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza following Hamas attacks in October 2023, which claimed the lives of thousands of Palestinian civilians, has fueled this shift in sentiment. A conventional pro-Israel candidate will now have a hard time winning the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2028 presidential election. Gavin Newsom, widely considered the frontrunner, has referred to Israel as an “apartheid state.”
Netanyahu has long aligned himself largely with Republicans. But strong anti-Israel sentiment, which is morphing into outright anti-Semitism, is now widespread within Trump’s Maga movement. These sentiments have been fueled by the Iran war and the resignation of Joe Kent, the Trump administration’s counterterrorism chief, who accused Israel of manipulating America into the conflict.
This version of events is actually very good for Trump. It is entirely possible for a US president to reject an Israeli prime minister’s call for war with Iran. Barack Obama and Joe Biden did just that. Trump accepted it. A quick victory over Iran could have preserved or even strengthened the US-Israeli alliance. But if the US sinks into a quagmire that costs American lives and collapses the economy, the backlash against Israel will only grow stronger.
As a result, it is now entirely understandable that in the 2028 presidential campaign, both Democratic and Republican candidates will argue for limiting support for Israel. This would be a strategic disaster for the Israelis, who have long been heavily dependent on US political and military support.
Since Hamas’s attack on Israel, the US has given Israel more than $16 billion in direct military aid, including bombs, ammunition, and missile interceptors that are essential to deterring Iranian attacks. Israel’s formidable military machine has also allowed Netanyahu to promote a dangerous myth that the only path to lasting security lies in war.
But the military victories that Netanyahu presented to the Israeli public as decisive have turned out to be anything but. Hamas is still entrenched in Gaza. The assassination of Hezbollah’s leadership in 2024 did not end the threat from the Lebanese militant group, and Israel is now back in a major war in Lebanon. After the attacks on Iran’s nuclear program last June, Netanyahu declared a “historic victory” that would “last for generations.” And yet here we are.
Netanyahu regularly denounces those who have pushed for talks with Iran and the Palestinians as naive fools. In fact, political and diplomatic paths are the only viable long-term paths to Israeli security. Netanyahu’s path is a recipe for perpetual war against a backdrop of rapidly declining international support for Israel, including from the US. This is a formula for disaster. Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “Financial Times”
Nje shoku im thoshte se nqs ke vendosur te rrahesh nje person une te ndihmoj te rrahesh ate, por pasojat e ngaterreses pastaj mbaji vete se une nuk mund te rri gjithmone duke te te mbrojtur. Edhe Izraeili te mbeshtetet tek forca e vet dhe jo te te tjeret se nuk te mbron gjithmone miku.
Bota duhet t i vere gishtin kokes dhe te mos lejoje udheheqes te semure mendore dhe shtete gjenocidale te shkaterrojne sa ka arritur njerezimi si ne kulture, ekonomi, aftesi e resurse njerezore mbi te gjitha qe te shkaterrohen si ne nje lufte ne kompjuter Izraeli duhet te marre nje mesim te madh nje here e mire , ndryshe te zhduket Israel e te rrije Lindja e Mesme e bota rehat Cdo vend dduhet te jete zot i pasurive te veta . Ashtu edhe Irani turp per te gjitha qeverite e mbi te gjitha per nje vend te vogel si Shqiperia qe serviloset dhe shet pjeset e saj per ambicje pushteti , narcizizem dhe pangopesi . nje dite mund te ndodh njesoj me Shqiperine detyra e shtypit te therrase forte dhe intelektualeve te dalin ne rruge
Me shume se i njeh Izraeli pabesite e Iranit, nuk mund ti njohe “ Financial Time “ dhe ju te Pamfletit qe i botoni. Regjimi Iranian duhet ndryshuar sepse eshte nje regjim terorist!