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Shkruar nga Amelia Lester
How Trump's tariffs shaped geopolitics this year...
Although tariffs have not been in vogue since the 19th century, Donald Trump has seen them as a solution to what he perceives as an unfair global trading system since at least the 1980s.
In 2025, Trump, now president of the United States, turned to import tariffs as a cure-all. But in many ways, the cure turned out to be worse than the disease. As a result of the uncertainty and chaos caused by Trump’s tariffs, the US economy shrank in the first quarter of this year. And while companies have so far largely absorbed the costs of the tariffs, consumers are starting to pay for them themselves.
If Americans are confused about why their hamburgers are more expensive (ground beef prices are up 14.2 percent from a year ago), the rest of the world is even more confused by the way Trump has upended the trade order. In April, when Trump announced steep tariffs on nearly all of the U.S.’s trading partners, administration officials promised “90 deals in 90 days.” That deadline has been extended, but deals are still rare. The deals that have been reached vary in their durability and formality.
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon in the case of Learning Resources v. Trump, which will determine whether the tariffs imposed by Trump exceed statutory and constitutional requirements.
Meanwhile, FP's Keith Johnson writes that the so-called Liberation Day tariffs have created "a new reality for a country and a planet whose post-World War II prosperity was fueled by a decades-long effort to remove trade barriers."
1. Trump's tariffs are disrupting global shipping
Shipping is, by definition, at the forefront of global trade. It was the first industry to feel the pain of Trump’s tariffs. But “as is becoming more common, shipping lines have adapted their itineraries and procedures,” and the long-term damage caused by ship turbulence could hit land. That could lead to imminent job losses, starting with port workers.
2. Why Beijing thinks it can beat Trump
Although he wrote the article just a week after Trump's tariff announcement in April, Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies was prescient in his analysis of how China would respond to U.S. obligations.
“Trump’s escalation, tough play, and instability are likely to be a monumental waste of time,” Kennedy writes, given China’s relative advantages in a trade war. “The real race for systemic competitiveness is, for now at least, over,” he adds, pointing to a more positive recent reappraisal by Chinese and international audiences about the resilience and strengths of the Chinese economic system compared with its American counterpart.
3. Trump's tariffs are disrupting global trade
As promised, Trump implemented the delayed tariffs on August 1, with punitive import taxes on almost every good from countries around the world. The problem is Trump's continued misdiagnosis of both the problem and the solution.
The tariffs spell bad news for U.S. economic growth, inflation and unemployment, and why experts think import tariffs will continue even after Trump leaves office.
4. Who holds the strong cards in Sino-American poker?
Drawing on Trump's apparent love of poker, Harvard University professor Graham Allison details the "last five hands" in the "Sino-American poker game" that was this year's trade war. He begins with Trump's initial announcement in April and concludes with reasons why Washington may still have some strong cards to play.
While there is no easy way to eliminate the vulnerabilities created by U.S. reliance on China for vital items, Allison writes, China also remains dependent on the United States for some things, and the U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency.
Allison asks: “Could this mutual recognition of inevitable interdependence become the foundation for a new chapter in the rivalry between the United States and China?” Here’s hoping that 2026 brings a version of “mutual restraint and coexistence” like the one the United States and the Soviet Union once enjoyed, Allison suggests.
5. Trump's tariffs threaten the end of net neutrality
For a nation like Switzerland, built on the pillars of neutrality, direct democracy, and financial prudence, Trump's tariffs represent not only an economic shock, but also an existential shock.
“In an era of economic austerity,” argues Ali Ahmadi of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “Switzerland’s carefully cultivated neutrality no longer offered protection.”
Switzerland’s troubles signal a broader breakdown of the postwar arrangement that allowed small, wealthy nations to remain politically disengaged while economically prosperous. Middle powers everywhere, Ahmadi writes, will now be forced to choose sides in an increasingly bipolar world order. /Adapted from Foreign Policy /
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