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Shkruar nga Lorenzo Torrisi
Today it is difficult to say whether Brussels can manage to take such important decisions.
After the victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential elections, many are asking what the economic consequences may be for other countries, especially in Europe. Mario Deaglio, professor of international economics at the University of Turin in Italy, says that "what will happen will not be so different from what would have happened if Kamala Harris had won.
According to him, despite having different leadership styles, both candidates would agree to ensure that the United States isolates itself from global problems on the one hand, and on the other hand try to confirm its undisputed primacy in the world.
Will the European economy be penalized more with the return of Donald Trump to the White House?
I say yes, because for Europe access to the American market will become even more difficult. US demand for European products will drop, and maybe on this side of the Atlantic we'll realize we're pretty far behind technologically. Even in the field of electric car production, we were quickly overtaken by the Chinese. And as we are seeing, the great crisis of this sector in Germany is a serious problem for Italian suppliers as well.
On the other hand, Germany is experiencing a political crisis, as Chancellor Scholz has just fired his Finance Minister…
Yes, even the political situation in France is not the best. President Macron is making foreign policy alone as Paris's political and economic influence in Africa has waned. Therefore, we in Europe are in a very bad situation. I think that a way out of this difficulty should go through the centralization in Brussels of a series of expenses, starting from those for defense, to continue with those for health and infrastructure, financed outside the EU budget. So through the issuance of money by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Does the fact that Lindner is no longer Finance Minister in Germany make it easier to issue the joint debt called for by Mario Draghi in his report?
Maybe yes, but the way out of the crisis is still long. We cannot ignore the fact that Europe will have to make quite a few choices in the short term, such as the one between the United States and China. So either we will agree to pay more for our defense, as Washington openly asks us to, and this will require a greater financing capacity from Brussels.
Or we will be forced to agree with Beijing in order to have those increasingly important raw materials for the electronics industry as well. However, this means being more sympathetic to the BRICS effort to create an alternative currency to the dollar for international transactions.
How will Trump react to BRICS' attempt to strongly rival the dollar?
He will pretend in public to be indifferent, but behind the scenes he will try to slow down or block this initiative. And above all, he will not forget the names of the countries that will decide to support this project.
Given the historical connection with the United States, will Europe ever be able to make choices that are not preferred by Washington?
Our close relationship with the US exists primarily because of NATO. And if Europe wants to preserve it, it will have to invest in defense, which would suit it, regardless of the state of its military arsenal. On the contrary, it will be able to count on US support, only if it matches Washington's interests. Among other things, I believe that Trump wants, as he admitted during the election campaign, to end the war in Ukraine.
For Europe to make such a choice, we will probably have to wait for the situation in Germany and France to calm down, and that may take some time...
It's true, but things don't wait, and we may have to decide earlier. And the simplest way to solve the production crisis in Germany is to aim for an agreement with China.
If the crisis continues in Germany and France, will the European Commission be able to take things under its control and decide, or is it still not such a strong institution?
Today it is difficult to say whether Brussels can manage to take such important decisions. It seems to me that taking advantage of the general political situation, Ursula von der Leyen will build the new commission in such a way that it will itself be a point of reference for many more issues than the commission that is ending its mandate .
On the one hand, this may irritate one or more member countries. But on the other hand, it can lay the groundwork for centralized decisions on certain issues, such as migration or relations with Africa./ Adapted "Pamphlet" From "Il Sussidiario"
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