FLASH
Shkruar nga Federico Rampini
There are many landmines in the field that could blow up the 'Trump Plan'...
Many hopes for Gaza have been dashed in the past, but we must acknowledge Benjamin Netanyahu’s stated optimism about the Trump Plan. He expressed confidence that the surviving hostages would soon return home. But the Trump Plan consists of twenty points; the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners is only a small part, albeit one of great humanitarian importance. Hamas leaders have agreed, albeit with some reservations and silence. One example: the American proposal seeks to end the Israeli military offensive in exchange for Hamas’s disarmament: its leaders and militants would receive immunity, amnesty, and a pass. Hamas’s support on this point is lacking; it is unclear whether the remnants of this militia will accept surrender and exile.
Another example. The American plan calls for the Gaza government to move to a transitional structure where the Palestinians would be represented by both independent technocrats and a “reformed” self-governing authority, under the umbrella of a coalition of Arab states, with Trump himself and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as guarantors. Hamas has no place in this structure: it is far from certain that its leaders will accept this departure. On the contrary, in initial assessments of the Trump Plan, Hamas leaders seem to hint at an active role in consulting with the Palestinian population, something that neither America nor Israel would accept.
Many unknowns do not prevent us from appreciating some of the novelties in the current situation. Authoritative accounts of recent events point to the Israeli raid on Doha, the capital of Qatar, as a turning point. This attempt to eliminate Hamas’s political leaders was a military failure and a diplomatic disaster. Despite all the uncertainties that have made it unpopular with its neighbors, Qatar has served many well in its role as a free-for-all: teetering between Iran and Saudi Arabia; home to the jihadist-sympathizing Al Jazeera television; a financier of extremist forces; and a global giant in the gas business.
It was Barack Obama and Netanyahu who wanted Hamas leaders to take refuge in luxury hotels in Doha, to maintain a kind of diplomatic triangulation with them and to prevent them from becoming "guests" of Tehran. Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East. The Israeli attack on Doha, in addition to humiliating local leaders, also offended its neighbors, for reasons of principle. This embarrassed the Pentagon, forced to "pretend not to see it" while the skies of an allied country were violated. It is no coincidence that when Trump received the Israeli Prime Minister at the White House and presented him with his Plan, he demanded that he "publicly call" an official apology to the Emir of Qatar. This was a decisive political price to restore consensus throughout the Arab coalition.
After all, this consensus exists and is broad. The countries supporting the Trump Plan are not just the “usual suspects,” traditionally pro-American, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. Qatar and Turkey themselves are also among them, two forces that have held very different positions in the past and have close relations with fundamentalist forces, the Muslim Brotherhood. This is a strong point of the Trump Plan, especially since the countries that support it would then be called upon to expose themselves on the front lines: both by participating in the reconstruction and within the governing structure of Gaza. This last aspect is the most delicate. Money for humanitarian aid and for the reconstruction of Gaza is available; the Gulf region is rich. But for Arab countries, given the acute sensitivity of their public opinion, it is much more risky to expose themselves with governmental and police roles in Gaza, with the risk of being somehow “associated” with Israel’s responsibilities.
The list of unknowns does not end here. There is the big question mark over Iran. The massacre of October 7, 2023 had the blessing of the Shiite theocratic regime. Khamenei and the ayatollahs have been weakened by the dual Israeli-American attack. It is unclear how they will try to defend their influence in the Middle East, after the blows they also suffered in Lebanon and Syria. It would take great political clarity in Tehran to attempt a repeat of 1982, when the then leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Yasser Arafat, was persuaded to leave Beirut for exile in Tunis with his entire family. Iran, in this case, must convince Hamas leaders to withdraw, expecting a projected revival in an uncertain and distant future.
There are doubts about the Palestinian Authority. What reforms are required to be allowed to legitimately participate in the government of Gaza? In addition to fighting corruption, two things are essential: it must stop rewarding terrorists and their families when they kill Israelis. It must stop teaching hatred to its children in its schools or about Israel and anti-Semitism. These are far from obvious concessions.
Finally, there is Israel. Trump is exploiting his historic relationship with Netanyahu, infinitely better than that of Obama and Biden. Perhaps only such a friendly president could secure an end to the war and the return of humanitarian aid from Tel Aviv. It must also be acknowledged that Trump’s “second best friend” in the region, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has exerted a positive influence. Riyadh is offering the possibility of reviving and carrying out the ultimate goal of the Abraham Accords, the diplomatic success of the first Trump administration. But Netanyahu is not ruling alone; his coalition also includes more extremist forces who are enamored with the idea of a Gaza in their hands. Therefore, there is an internal dimension to Israeli politics that should not be underestimated.
There are many landmines in the field that could detonate the Trump Plan. For now, it is still better to talk about this, and not just about bombs, death, hunger and suffering./Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “Corriere Della Sera”
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