FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Putin could act in three stages to subjugate Ukraine. The West could hinder the Tsar's moves by exerting medium-term pressure on the Russian economy...
The most difficult winter for Kiev, the fourth since the start of Russia's war of aggression, may be near. In the last few hours alone, over 200 clashes have been reported between Ukrainian and Russian armies, while the Financial Times reports that a shortage of troops is putting the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk on the brink of collapse due to the inability of the central government to deploy defensive troops.
In addition to Pokrovsk, the Russian threat also looms over the twin city of Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine. In its analysis of the situation on the ground, the British newspaper quotes fighters and experts who claim that, if captured, both urban centers "could be used as a base for further Russian advances" and point out that "Kiev's army is increasingly stretched along the 1,000-kilometer border."
While even President Zelensky admits that the situation is "difficult," fears are growing among members of the Western coalition about Putin's next moves.
Jack Watling, a leading expert on the conflict, outlines the Kremlin's possible plan in Foreign Affairs, identifying a three-phase plan that the Tsar could follow to achieve his strategic objective: the subjugation of Ukraine.
First, Watling writes, Russia seeks to occupy and destroy as much Ukrainian territory as possible, so that the remainder "can only be economically viable with Moscow's consent."
To achieve this, the Russian military would need to maintain control of the four already annexed oblasts and add Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Odessa, effectively cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea.
Only after these conditions are met, the analyst continues, would the Kremlin seek a ceasefire to begin a second phase "in which it would use economic influence and political warfare, backed by the threat of a new invasion, to exert control over Kiev."
In the third phase, "Russia would absorb Ukraine into its orbit in a manner similar to Belarus."
It is not certain that the worst-case scenario will become a reality for Kiev. For now, Moscow has not yet completed the first of three phases, says Watling, who, however, emphasizes that "the tragic irony of the last nine months of the conflict is that, while the international debate has been dominated by the prospect of negotiations and a ceasefire, Russia has intensified the fighting."
"The Kremlin aims to break Ukrainian resistance," the expert argues, adding that "Ukraine has shown itself open to negotiations, but the inability of its partners to exert pressure on Russia has allowed Putin to buy time to change the situation on the ground."
For Watling, "both sides are showing signs of fatigue, but neither is ready for peace." However, the West has a way to sabotage the Tsar's plan. The analyst explains that "only by steering Moscow towards a clear medium-term economic crisis will international partners convince Putin to accept a ceasefire." / Adapted from Pamphlet/
Eurooa duhet ta mbledhi mendjen ,te ndihmoje Ukrainen qe Hitlerin e Moskes ta mundin keqas dhe te paguaje te gjitha demet e shkaktuara nga lufta , ndryshe Hitleri Moskes do gllaberoje dhe nja tri shtete te tjera Europiane.