FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
During his 16 years in power, Orbán has maintained complete control over electoral rules, adapting them to political circumstances.
Hungarians will head to the polls on April 12 in what is expected to be one of the most important elections since the fall of communism. However, critics and analysts say the process will not be played out on a level playing field.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has built a significant electoral advantage over the years through control of institutions and gradual changes to the rules of the political game. Unlike the controlled election model in Russia, where opponents are often barred from running, in Hungary the opposition is allowed to participate but claims it faces an unequal system.
Opponents say the ruling Fidesz party benefits from the reshuffling of electoral districts, media control and suspected vote-buying practices. Although independent polls have shown a lead for the Tisza party led by Péter Magyar for months, analysts say translating this lead into electoral victory remains difficult due to the real functioning of the system on the ground.
During his 16 years in power, Orbán has maintained complete control over electoral rules, tailoring them to political circumstances. Former Fidesz MP Zsuzsanna Szelényi, who left the party when it shifted towards an illiberal course, describes this approach as “the will to win at all costs.”
A similar scenario was seen in the 2022 elections, when the opposition united against Orbán, but Fidesz managed to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament. Orbán interpreted the result as support for his conservative and patriotic policies.
On the other hand, Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor at Princeton University and an expert on elections in Hungary, argues that the system is built in such a way that it favors the ruling party. According to her, a parliamentary majority allows the government to change laws to neutralize any opposition strategy.
One of the main elements of criticism is the reformatting of electoral districts. After 2010, parliament was reduced and the country was divided into 106 single-member districts of unequal size. The larger districts are mainly located in opposition strongholds, while the smaller ones are in areas supporting Fidesz. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has expressed concern about this practice, noting significant deviations in the size of the districts.
Another element is the control of the media. Since 2010, state advertising has been withdrawn from critical media outlets, while private advertisers have been warned to avoid cooperation with them. As a result, many independent media outlets have been weakened or bought by businessmen close to the government. According to Dutch MEP Tineke Strik, the lack of free media makes it difficult to hold free elections.
The European Parliament has also raised concerns about the state of democracy in Hungary, highlighting the dominance of the state narrative in the media space. The Hungarian government has rejected these accusations, stating that pluralism of opinion exists.
The practice of so-called “voter tourism” is another point of contention. In 2021, it was made easier for voters to register in areas where they do not live. Critics argue that this allows for the strategic relocation of voters to key areas, although a lack of data makes it difficult to verify the real impact.
Also, the extension of the right to vote to ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries has brought in an additional electorate that largely supports Fidesz. These voters can vote by mail, while Hungarian immigrants in more distant countries face more complicated procedures.
Finally, allegations of vote-buying have also been raised, particularly in poorer areas. Civil society organizations have reported cases where voters were offered money or goods in exchange for votes. Similar allegations have been made during this campaign, including in a documentary released on March 26 by independent journalists.
The government has stated that any irregularities can be investigated by the authorities and has questioned the credibility of some of these allegations.
While the opposition hopes to challenge this system and bring about change, many analysts remain skeptical whether the current mechanisms will allow for a truly equal competition./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Politico".
Lini një Përgjigje