FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Russia's defeat will divide the country's elites into two groups. First will be the hardliners who believe the war could have been won if only they were in charge. While in the second group will be the oligarchs desperate to stop the bloodshed and fix relations with the West, if only to preserve their wealth and power...
In the early hours of May 3, Muscovites awoke to an incredible sight: two suicide drones had somehow managed to penetrate the city's air defenses and explode on the roof of the Kremlin itself.
Such an attack would have been unthinkable when Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine a year ago, and yet it was only the beginning. Three weeks later, partisans began raiding Russia's borders, and then a swarm of drones crashed into Moscow's affluent suburbs.
Fighting between the Russian military and Putin's warlords is now at a fever pitch, Ukraine's counteroffensive is looming, and one opposition politician even went so far as to call for Putin himself to be replaced on state television earlier this week.
So is this really the beginning of the end for the Russian tyrant? 'Yes,' believes Luke Coffey, an expert at the Hudson Institute in Washington, who adds that the fall of Putin will be quickly followed by the disintegration of Russia itself.
" I agree [that] this is the beginning of the end of Putin - the trajectory now is towards the overthrow of Putin and the further disintegration of the Russian Federation ," he said.
Coffey believes the final breakup will begin with Russia's decisive defeat in Ukraine. Many hope it will come after Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive this summer, but military experts have warned the war could still be years away.
Russia's defeat will divide the country's elites into two groups. First will be the hardliners who believe the war could have been won if only they were in charge. While the second group will be the oligarchs desperate to stop the bloodshed and fix relations with the West, if only to preserve their wealth and power.
Either way, Putin is 'toast' and will end up dead or in exile somewhere. According to Coffey, with the departure of the supreme leader, Russia's breakaway regions will rise up against Moscow and demand independence.
The warlords may also compete with each other for control and the Russian Federation will rapidly collapse.
" It will be unpredictable and in some places it will be violent. I think you will see uprisings among disaffected people, Moscow will have to decide which parts to fight for, which different power brokers they can engage with to keep their interest. There will be many difficult choices to be made and whoever is in charge will have to keep an eye on their back ," he said.
Gjithashtu Kina mund të përpiqet të ngrejë një pretendim mbi territorin që Pekini beson se u hoq padrejtësisht nga kontrolli i saj nga Rusia Perandorake dhe Turqia mund të ndërhyjë për të mbrojtur popujt turq të shpërndarë në të gjithë vendin.
Dhe Perëndimi nuk ka gjasa të rrijë duarkryq, ndërsa një vend me 6000 koka bërthamore dhe rezerva kokash biologjike dhe kimike shpërbëhet në pragun e tij.
“Duhet të fillojmë të mendojmë se si do të marrim kontrollin e një situate të tillë dhe t'i dilnim përpara ngjarjeve. Mendoj se do të ishte shumë naive që politikëbërësit perëndimorë të mos e konsideronin këtë si një mundësi”, përfundoi Coffey.
Ndërkohë James Rogers, bashkëthemeluesi i Këshillit për Gjeo strategji, ishte më hezitues. Ai ra dakord se sulmet në Rusi janë një 'kërcënim i mundshëm' për Putinin dhe mund të përfundojnë duke krijuar një pykë midis tij dhe kabalës së elitave që mbështesin regjimin e tij, duke çuar në rënien e tij.
Por ai paralajmëroi se edhe nëse Putini bie, nuk ka asnjë garanci se kushdo që do të vinte më pas do t'i jepte fund luftës dhe do t'i kthente Ukrainës territoret e saj të humbura, që është qëllimi përfundimtar i Kievit.
"Ata mund ta bëjnë, por mund të mos e bëjnë. Dikush edhe më i ashpër se Putini mund të marrë kontrollin e Kremlinit dhe kjo e kthen në mënyrë efektive Ukrainën në shesh. E vetmja mënyrë për të garantuar kthimin e territoreve është në fushën e betejës", tha Rogers.
Going forward, he expects attacks in Russia to continue and increase as the West lends more support to Kiev and the Kremlin's manpower and weapons stockpiles are depleted.
“ As long as Ukraine continues to receive support from the West then, they have the means to push back. I would expect the attacks to escalate, the situation for the Russians to worsen and the sanctions regime to destroy them ," he concluded./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Dailymail"
Lini një Përgjigje