FLASH
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A victory for the ruling party's candidates in Istanbul and Ankara could prompt Erdogan to seek a constitutional amendment to extend his stay in power beyond the end of his current term.
Millions of voters in Turkey will go to the polls on Sunday for crucial municipal elections, a test of the popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, which is anxious to win back key municipalities it lost five years ago.
A victory for the ruling party's candidates in Istanbul and Ankara could prompt Erdogan, analysts say, to seek a constitutional amendment to extend his stay in power beyond the end of his current term.
In the 2019 elections, the united opposition won Ankara and Istanbul, ending 25 years of control by Erdogan's AKP. The loss of Istanbul was especially a big blow for the current president of Turkey, since he started his political career there as mayor in 1994.
In this election, Erdogan is facing 47-year-old former Environment Minister Murat Kurum against the current mayor of Istanbul from the Republican People's Party and his possible future opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu.
The well-known 52-year-old Imamoglu this time will not be able to count on the support of the main pro-Kurdish or nationalist parties, which have their own candidates.
The polls herald a head-to-head battle between Imamoglu and Erdogan, who have promised Istanbul residents infrastructure projects to make buildings earthquake-resistant and address chronic traffic problems.
The opposition is expected to retain control of Ankara, whose current mayor, Mansur Yavas, remains popular and is said to have presidential ambitions.
If the AKP succeeds in recapturing Istanbul and Ankara and its candidates secure high percentages, the party will strengthen, according to analysts, Erdogan's determination to change the Constitution in order to remain in power after his second term ends. , in 2028.
The same analysts say that while Erdogan and his allies do not have enough seats in Turkey's National Assembly to push for constitutional change, another electoral triumph for the AKP could push some conservative opposition lawmakers to defect.
During the campaign, Erdogan warned voters that they should vote for his elected officials if they want their municipalities to secure government support.
At the same time he demanded a 49% increase in the minimum wage, despite his government's efforts to curb inflation, while he did not stop praising the successes of the Turkish defense industry with the KAAN fighter jet making its first flight. last month.
Kurdish voters, who make up about 10% of the electorate in Istanbul, are expected to play a decisive role in the outcome of the battle between Imamoglu and Erdogan's chosen one.
The pro-Kurdish party had supported Imamoglu's candidacy five years ago, contributing to his victory.
This time, however, the People's Party of Equality and Democracy (DEM), as it is now called, is fielding its own candidates, possibly depriving the current mayor of Istanbul of votes.
Observers, however, note that DEM deliberately chose two lesser-known candidates in a move of tacit support for Imamoglu.
The DEM, on the other hand, is expected to win many Kurdish-dominated municipalities in southeastern Turkey, and it remains to be seen whether it will be allowed to retain control or replace its winning candidates for alleged links to PKK militants. with mayors of municipalities.
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