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With the long and slow peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev continuing this week, many analysts have noted the difficult nature of the talks. There is a widespread view among experts that the Kremlin has little interest in reaching an agreement, and that Vladimir Putin is simply seeking to drag out the discussions while he continues to pursue his maximalist goals.
Alexander Baunov is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center and said the demands set out before a full-scale invasion in 2022 went far beyond its dispute with Ukraine, and it has not given up on those demands. Even then, Ukraine was both an end and a means to something bigger.
After four years and countless victims of war, a result of several thousand square kilometers of scorched and uninhabited land - even accompanied by a formal commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO - would seem somewhat pathetic.
"The only thing that can save Putin in this situation, given the impossibility of occupying all of Ukraine by force now, is some kind of political takeover. This would be complemented by expanding the scope of the peace agreement beyond Ukraine. The ultimate goal of the political part of the negotiations for Russia is regime change in Ukraine and the neutralization of Ukrainian statehood in its current form," Baunov said .
He added that the war is currently more difficult than ever for both sides, but suggests that Russian negotiators see Ukraine's flexibility in negotiations as a sign that Donald Trump has finally managed to put pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky.
This, says Baunov, is creating a vicious circle in which as soon as Ukraine's position weakens under pressure, Russia increases its demands.
" Many people in Ukraine fear that the war will be forgotten once it is over. For this reason, Kiev is negotiating hard to secure the best possible terms, including maximum reconstruction aid, mandatory guarantees and EU membership. Similarly, Moscow suspects - and not without reason - that over the past four years, the war has become its most important asset. Fears of the depreciation of this major currency after the fighting ends are pushing Russia to maximize its demands, from new territories and changes to Ukrainian laws to the withdrawal of NATO to the 1990s borders and the lifting of all sanctions ," he added.
Further, Baunov concluded by emphasizing that Russia is not only not seeking to make concessions to Ukraine, but is seeking to gain something beyond Ukraine.
“Meanwhile, Russia wants to extract concessions, not in exchange for Ukraine, but beyond it. Putin is dragging his feet, waiting for a breakthrough on the front lines or a grand deal in which Trump will give him something more than Ukraine in exchange for concessions on Ukraine.
And if he doesn't, the conflict could spread beyond Ukraine. Having failed to get what he wanted even after a long and bloody war, Putin may find it easier to hide his failure by escalating the conflict. This risk is compounded by the fact that Trump, having failed to live up to his lofty boasting, may follow suit," he concluded./ SkyNews
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