FLASH
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The "Black Death" or plague pandemic that swept through Europe and Asia for about 5 years in the mid-1300s is believed to have reduced the global population by 1/3.
Today, hundreds of years after this pandemic, there is another phenomenon that is frighteningly reducing the level of the global population. According to a new report published in the medical journal "The Lancet" , the decline in birth rates is so shocking that the number 8 billion could change in a few decades.
Natalia Bhattacharjee, one of the authors of the study, says that fertility has fallen especially in the countries of Western Europe, where there are also mass disturbances caused by migration. Most likely, the global economy will be completely reconfigured and there will be a reorganization of societies.
What does the Lancet report say?
The March report, titled "Global Fertility in 204 Countries and Territories " for the period 1950-2021, was compiled by a team of international researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Projections are made for up to the year 2100 and all analysis is based on current birth rates. According to researchers, the norm for a stable population is 2 children per woman. However, in Western Europe, it is predicted that by 2050 each woman will give birth to only one child. The most affected country? Spain.
The team also predicted that only 6 countries in the world: Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Nigeria, Chad and Tajikistan will have a high rate by the end of the next century.
Tables for fertility 2050-2100:
Experts say that the decline in the birth rate is the result of increased employment among women. According to the UN, women are driving the economy towards growth. The phenomenon is also attributed to advances in the medical field.
How will this affect western countries?
If the findings in The Lancet turn out to be correct, then countries like the UK, where the birth rate is predicted to fall precipitously, will be dependent on immigration for the next 8 decades or more. As fewer babies are born, the population is aging faster. With fewer young people generating wealth to balance the rising costs of supporting the elderly, countries may face serious economic challenges in the future.
The only obvious solution, experts say, is to allow more migration from countries with younger populations. It is known that the countries of sub-Saharan Africa have a vital resource that aging societies have, the very young population.
But is it true that softer policies towards immigrants will be productive?
Many Western democracies describe the increase in immigration as a "curse". For example, in the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made it a priority to 'stop' illegal entry into the country and is even looking forward to sending all asylum seekers to Rwanda.
Even in France, President Emmanuel Macron has asked to implement the tough bill against immigrants, which was approved in December 2023.
"The Great Replacement", Conspiracy Theory
This theory was first popularized by the French philosopher Renaud Camus in 2011 where he promoted the idea that the decrease in the number of births in Western societies is a 'conspiracy'. As he wrote in his book, "whites" will be replaced by other races.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is one of the people who believed this theory. In 2019, he rejected the notion that 21st-century Europe would be "populated by non-Europeans".
"If Europe will not be populated by Europeans in the future and we take this as a given, then we are talking about a population exchange", he said at the time.
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