FLASH
Shkruar nga Anders Fogh Rasmussen
The big increase in defense spending may give a short-term boost to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but the sanctions are raising costs for Russian businesses and limiting their access to the latest technologies, hurting it Russia's long-term productivity...
The time has come to refocus our approach to sanctions against Russia. It has been almost 2 years since the latter launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine through an unprecedented attack, which led to an equally unprecedented response from the democratic world.
Within weeks, countries such as South Korea, Australia and Japan joined the EU, UK and US in imposing sanctions on Moscow. Russia quickly overtook Iran as the world's most sanctioned country, and by the end of last year, it had more than 18,000 active measures targeting Russian individuals or companies.
Immediately after the invasion, Russia was cut off from the global financial system, SWIFT, and deprived of more than $300 billion of its worldwide assets, which were frozen. It was hoped that these drastic measures would damage Russia's economy, weaken its ability to finance the war and ultimately force President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
Unfortunately, something like that has not happened yet. The Russian economy was degraded, but not destroyed.
Now the conflict has turned into a devastating war with no end in sight. Victory will largely depend on whether Ukraine and its allies can dominate Russia on the battlefield.
We must review our sanctions policy based on this very objective. We must recognize that while the measures will not force Moscow to end the war overnight, they are another means of sabotaging and degrading the means of production. Every Russian tank we prevent from being built is one less tank Ukrainian forces have to destroy on the ground.
In this framework, we must focus on three main areas. First, we need to strengthen enforcement of existing sanctions to prevent Western spare parts from reaching Russia's military industrial complex. Second, to further strengthen sanctions against Russian heavy industry, which plays a key role in supporting Putin's war.
And finally, we must use frozen Russian assets to finance the victory and reconstruction of Ukraine. Despite multiple rounds of sanctions, more than 2.6 billion euros worth of Western-made components that could be used for military production entered Russia in 2023 alone.
Analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics found nearly 2,800 foreign components in destroyed or captured Russian weapons, including hypersonic missiles that have been used to hit Ukraine's major cities and critical infrastructure.
So we need to put a lot more pressure on Western companies to make sure this doesn't happen again in the future. Suspicious sales increases in countries known to have increased exports to Russia these days, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, should be investigated.
And when necessary they must be blocked. Our goal should be to disrupt or damage supply lines to Russia's military-industrial complex. Over the past year, Russia has prepared its economy for a long conflict. It has reverted to old Soviet strategies and has chosen heavy industry to support the war in Ukraine. Western governments should retaliate by increasing sanctions on its means of production. The target of sanctions should be the nuclear industry, but also companies that produce steel and aluminum or gases such as helium. Russia's war is still being financed by revenues from hydrocarbon sales.
Therefore, it is very important to further limit and cut off the supply of Russian oil and gas. We must put pressure on Gazprom and its affiliates, and crack down on the countries that help Russian oil reach global markets.
Finally, Western leaders must overcome their reluctance to use frozen Russian assets in support of the war and the reconstruction of Ukraine. In the early days of the war, democratic governments blocked Russia's access to more than 300 billion euros of foreign reserves.
And with policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic struggling to figure out how to finance Kiev's war effort, this is one source of revenue we can no longer afford to ignore.
Until now, G7 governments are concerned that in response to such a move, other countries would withdraw their reserves from member states.
But I think this fear is overblown. A greater concern should be that our inaction would surely bring the Russian military success in Ukraine. And that would set a far more dangerous precedent. So that anyone can attack another country and the global order, suffering only minimal negative consequences.
Unlocking more than 300 billion euros would not only provide funds that are vital to Ukraine today, but would also send a clear message to Putin that he will not escape serious consequences for the war that has started. Two years of sanctions may have failed to bring Russia's economy to its knees, but that doesn't mean they aren't having an effect.
The big increase in defense spending may give a short-term boost to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but the sanctions are raising costs for Russian businesses and limiting their access to the latest technologies, hurting it Russia's long-term productivity.
But now we must go further. Sanctions will never be a 100 percent effective weapon, but in a long, destructive war, we must use everything in our arsenal to guarantee Ukraine victory. / Adapted Pamphlet from "Financial Times"
Note: Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former Secretary General of NATO.
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