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Iran is believed to have had a pre-war stockpile of 5,000 to 6,000 mines...
Only Iran knows how many mines it has placed in the Strait of Hormuz. But the possibility that it has filled the narrow waterway with deadly weapons is forcing the US to begin preparations to search the seabed for them. According to experts, it could take weeks to complete such a laborious mission and declare the passage safe from the mines, which can be camouflaged to look like rocks and can be eroded into the sand.
It would take even longer if the fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Washington collapses and the mission has to be attempted under fire. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was extending the pause in fighting.
“It’s a terrifying scenario,” said Kevin Eyer, a former director of training at the U.S. Mine and Anti-Submarine Warfare Command. He estimates it could take a month and a half to establish a safe transit route in the Persian Gulf and up to four months to completely clear the strait, which carries about a fifth of global oil and gas trade by sea.
Bryan Clark, a former Pentagon official at the Hudson Institute, suggested it might be possible to clear a safe passage within a week, based on a war game recently conducted at the think tank. But a full mine clearance of the Strait of Hormuz could take up to four weeks.
US forces announced earlier this month that they were launching a clean-up mission. Trump said on Thursday that he had ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill" any Iranian ships that were laying mines.
The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in a televised statement last Sunday that Iran had “resolutely confronted US mine-clearing efforts,” which it considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that Iran had even advanced to the point of confrontation, but that the enemy had retreated.
Much will depend on how many mines Iran was able to lay during its eight-week battle with America and Israel. American officials say Iran has laid some mines, but the number may be small. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said ships should avoid sailing through a restricted area in the middle of the strait and use alternative shipping routes that pass through Iranian waters in order to avoid mines. Iran’s declaration this month that the strait would be “fully open” during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sparked a flood of ships trying to exit the Gulf, waiting to be allowed to pass through a specific route marked out by Iran.
Instead, several were shot down by the IRGC, including an Indian tanker and a container ship belonging to the French shipping line CMA CGM, causing confusion about whether the strait was open or not, while Trump maintained a US naval blockade. Most who had decided to try to pass were turned back. Insecurity is the main problem. To open a safe corridor through the strait, mine-clearing ships would need to clear a channel about a mile wide, the coordinates of which could be shared with tankers to allow them to pass safely.
Iran is believed to have had a pre-war stockpile of 5,000 to 6,000 mines. They range from old-fashioned contact mines, which are attached to ropes and float just below the surface, to sophisticated bottom-laying mines that are programmed to detonate in response to specific magnetic, acoustic and pressure cues.
"This is going to be a tedious and difficult job," said Steve Wills, a former officer aboard a US minesweeping ship who now works with the Center for Naval Strategy.
Iran probably laid its mines quickly and randomly, making them harder to find compared with more methodically modeled minefields, said Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at RAND who has advised the Pentagon on mine warfare.
He said the slow-moving light minehunter vessels would also be vulnerable to cruise missiles and drones launched from the nearby Iranian coastline. They would need to be pursued by destroyers and advanced fighters overhead.
Littoral Combat Ships will carry the brunt of the work. They search for mines using laser-equipped helicopters and deploying unmanned vehicles armed with sonar, cameras and sensitive magnetic field detectors. The LCS program has been criticized by some analysts and veterans for being expensive and untested.
But the US Navy has only two such ships ready to begin work in the strait, while a third is undergoing maintenance in Singapore. The US has neglected its mine warfare capabilities for decades and has been in the process of retiring its last minesweepers, despite mines being responsible for almost 80 percent of US warships sunk or disabled since 1945.
Washington withdrew the last four wooden-hulled Avenger-class ships from Bahrain in January. Two Avengers are currently being moved from Japan to the Middle East. That limited capacity may explain why Trump has stepped up his campaign to pressure American partners in Europe, which have more than 100 mining ships and extensive expertise, to contribute to a cleanup effort in the strait.
“They need some kind of support from Europe ,” said Jan Thörnqvist, a former head of the Swedish Navy. The Europeans were more experienced and better equipped than their American counterparts, Thörnqvist said, adding that the currents and coastal waters in the Strait of Hormuz were similar to the Danish Strait. In Europe, whose navies have long practiced mine clearance in the Baltic and North Seas, there are discussions about organizing a mission. But many countries are reluctant to help solve a problem they had no part in creating.
It would not be a quick fix. It could take up to four months to equip and deploy a European mine-clearing operation, Thörnqvist said, adding that any clearing operation would take several months after that. If the Europeans don’t show up in the Gulf, Washington could call on another force to help its beleaguered sailors: mine-hunting dolphins.
These specially trained swimmers, based in San Diego, were deployed during previous mine clearance campaigns in the Persian Gulf in 1991 and 2003. They are likely to be used in a clearance campaign once the bulk of the mines have been identified and destroyed./ Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “Financial Times”
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