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The USA holds presidential elections on Tuesday, who will win?
There are five days left until the US presidential election, even though over fifty million people have voted by mail or in person.
According to the polls, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are strongly engaged, especially in the seven swing states that will decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and almost all polls in Wisconsin they give one candidate or the other a very small lead, often within the margin of error.
Nationally, according to poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, Harris would be ahead by 1.4 percentage points — 48.1% to 46.7% — while RealClearPolitics in its polling average gives Trump a 0.4-point margin, 48.4% to 48%.
The popular vote at the national level, however, matters little: Hillary Clinton received three million more preferences in 2016, but Trump became president thanks to 77 thousand votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The only thing left is to observe the indications coming from these seven states.
The latest poll by "CNN"
The latest CNN poll conducted right on the "blue wall" gives Harris the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, while in Pennsylvania the two challengers are tied. In Michigan, the vice president would be at 48% to Trump's 43% among those likely to go to the polls, while in Wisconsin she would be at 51% to her rival's 45%: these are the two states alone, among those in the balance, where Robert Kennedy Jr. remained on the ballot despite his withdrawal and support for Trump, a factor that could end up hurting his ally.
In Pennsylvania, according to the same poll conducted between October 23 and 28, both candidates would be at 48%. Among those sure to go to the polls, however, Harris is ahead in all three states — 51% to 45% in Michigan, 52% to 47% in Wisconsin, 50% to 47% in Pennsylvania — and the lead is growing between those who have already voted: 61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin, 57% to 40% in Pennsylvania.
The draw in Pennsylvania
The tie in Pennsylvania also emerges from the Monmouth University Poll, another just released poll: 42% of those who have already voted and 5% of those who will vote support Harris, identical numbers for Trump. In this crucial state, the former president remains ahead at 60% among white voters without a college degree — nearly half the electorate — while Harris has stalled at 35%. The vice president is ahead — 58% to 37% — among white college graduates and 62% (vs. 25%) among African-American, Hispanic and other racial voters. Compared to the last poll five weeks ago, Harris lost one point and Trump gained two, but pollsters from the University of New Jersey note that these are statistically insignificant movements: All of these numbers, they explained, are well within the range of error.
Country by country polls
In such small numbers, however, each poll "sees" different results, also depending on the political views of the pollsters. Here are last week's polls, state by state:
- in Pennsylvania , Fox News and InsiderAdvantage give Trump a 1% lead, Quinnipiac at 2%, Atlas at 3%, Susquehanna, CNN and CBS give the two challengers a tie. No one but Bloomberg in a poll conducted between Oct. 16 and 20 and NYTimes/Siena in one earlier this month gave Harris the win;
- in Michigan , Fox News and USA Today/Suffolk give the two candidates a tie; Atlas Intel, InsiderAdvantage and Emerson lead Trump by one point; Susquehanna and Quinnipiac led Harris with 5 and 4 points respectively;
- in Wisconsin , Marquette and CNN see Harris ahead by 1 and 6 points; Atlas Intel reads a tie; InsiderAdvantage, USA Today/Suffolk and Emerson rate Trump ahead by 1 point;
- in Arizona, Trump is ahead for Atlas Intel, Data Orbital, Trafalgar Group and Marist (with 4.8, 2 and 1 points); Harris leads by 1 for CNN;
-in Nevada, Atlas Intel and CNN give Trump ahead by 1 point, Trafalgar gives the candidates tied and Bloomberg in previous days saw Harris ahead by 1 point;
- in Georgia, both Atlas Intel and Trafalgar Group give Trump a 3- and 2-point lead, while Marist reports a tie.
- in North Carolina , Fox News and Trafalgar Group have Trump ahead by 1 and 3 points, Atlas Intel gives Harris a 1-point lead and Wral-Tv/Survey USA reports a tie.
How do you know who will win?
Anything can happen in any state and almost every poll is within the margin of error. Therefore, to understand who is ahead and who will win in November, it remains only to rely on mathematics: that of the electoral college, which determines the victory in the presidential election, and that of the averages of polls conducted by the RealClearPolitics sites, shifted towards conservative positions and FiveThirtyEight, which has more progressive positions.
In the United States, citizens do not directly elect the president, but do so through 538 elected representatives. The number is set in proportion to population, with the most populous having the greatest weight: California for example has 54, the smallest like Vermont 3. Whoever gets the most votes in the state wins all of the state's electors (except in Maine and Nebraska, where some electors are assigned to those who win districts). To become president, you need at least 270 electoral mandates.
Counting the states in which they are certain to win, Harris starts with 225 votes, Trump with 220 votes. 93 electoral votes remain, the ones that will decide the election: Pennsylvania 19 votes, Georgia and North Carolina 16, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada 6. From here we can trace two paths to the White House : one following RealClearPolitics' guidelines and one with the map outlined by FiveThirtyEight.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump is ahead by 2.5 points in Arizona, 0.5 points in Nevada, 0.8 in Pennsylvania, 1 in North Carolina and 2.4 in Georgia; Harris has a margin of 0.2 in Wisconsin and 0.4 in Michigan. In this way, the vice president would add 25 electoral votes and stop at 250 in total, while Trump would receive 68, reaching 288 and returning to the White House. However, Pennsylvania would be enough to change the outcome.
According to an analysis of polls conducted by FiveThirtyEight, however, Trump is ahead by 2.2 points in Arizona, by 1.8 in Georgia; by 1.1 in North Carolina, by 0.4 in Pennsylvania, Harris leads by 1 in Michigan, by 0.1 in Nevada, by 0.8 in Wisconsin. In that case, the Democratic vice president would win 31 electoral votes, stopping at 256, while Trump would receive 62, still exceeding the threshold needed for re-election, at 282 total. Again, Pennsylvania can turn everything around. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
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