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Putin's strategic move to impress Trump...
The timing, the suddenness, the one-sidedness above all. If Ukraine's allies needed evidence of Moscow's savage cynicism when it comes to peace, the declaration of an immediate ceasefire for Easter was the right indicator.
It came just hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his boss, President Donald Trump, said they would need an urgent sign in the coming days that the Kremlin was serious about peace.
To Russia's supporters, Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement on Saturday seemed like a nod to Trump — but the sudden statement is so fraught with practical flaws that it is likely simply being used by Putin to support his false notion that Kiev does not want its war to stop.
It would be a logistical nightmare for Ukrainian forces to suddenly, immediately halt the fighting on Putin's orders. Some frontline positions could be in the midst of fierce fighting when the order comes, and a disruption of this nature would likely require days of preparation and readiness.
Misinformation will surely confuse troops about implementing the ceasefire, how to report or respond to violations, and even what to do when the end comes.
It is possible that this moment is a rare sign that both sides can stop the violence for a short period. But it is much more likely that both will use violations and confusion to show that their opponent cannot be trusted. As of Saturday evening local time, Ukrainian officials said that Russian attacks had continued in frontline areas.
The ongoing 30-day ceasefire limited to energy infrastructure was born in conditions of complete chaos. The White House announced that “energy and infrastructure” were protected, the Kremlin said they would immediately stop attacks on “energy infrastructure,” and Ukraine said the ceasefire began a week later. Its implementation has been equally mired in mistrust and accusations of violations.
Moscow made a similar unilateral statement in January 2023, calling for a day of peace to allow Orthodox Christians to celebrate Christmas – a move that Kiev and Western leaders dismissed at the time as a strategic pause for military purposes.
A genuine ceasefire requires negotiations with your adversary and preparations for it to happen. The sudden rush to do so seems entirely designed to appease the White House’s demands for any sign that Russia is willing to stop the fighting. This is likely to feed Trump’s pro-Moscow framework of conflict at a time when it is likely to cause problems for Ukraine when they are inevitably accused of violating what Washington might consider a goodwill gesture from Moscow.
Ultimately, this brief, possibly theoretical, perhaps rhetorical, and entirely one-sided halt to a three-year war is likely to do more harm than good to the role of diplomacy in the coming months. /Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “CNN”
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