FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
What will be the impact of accusations by Prigozhin, who recently claimed that it was not the threat of NATO that caused the invasion of Ukraine, but rather the greed of Russian generals? It is too early to tell, but all this confirms once again that this war was the worst mistake of Putin's rule and reinforces the West's decision to support Ukraine...
The dramatic events that shook the power of Russian President Vladimir Putin for a few hours last weekend still have more secrets to reveal. Their shockwave can be felt for weeks and months to come in unexpected ways.
At this point, we can draw at least 3 lessons from the events that have ushered Russia into a new era. First, we should dwell a little on the head of mercenary forces Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the anti-hero of this episode.
While historians may struggle to define his figure, they will at least agree that he is a creation of Vladimir Putin himself, and that he escaped the Russian president's control by aiming to become a master of the playing field himself. .
When Putin spoke openly of a "stab in the back" in his scathing speech released on Saturday morning, he was describing the betrayal of a man who owed him everything he had achieved so far but had broken the golden rule. of the relationship with the Russian leader.
Prigozhin earned his trust by offering Putin his only victory of the year in Bakhmut, Ukraine, albeit at a terrible human cost. But Prigozhin became embroiled in a power struggle with Moscow's military leaders and lost.
Under these conditions, what will remain of Prigozhin and Wagner when the waters calm down? It is not certain that there will be more weight in the future. No one challenges the Tsar without being sure that he will win. This is the first lesson of this extraordinary event.
A "Pyrrhic Victory" for Putin
What will happen to Putin now? This remains the most crucial question. There is no doubt that the Russian president emerges weakened by this crisis. It is true that he retained power, that there was no civil war, and that Moscow still remains under his control. But this is only a "Pyrrhic Victory", so very costly.
For more than 20 years, Putin's power has been built on the myth of the strongman. He did not create a modern state. Instead, it built a "system" based on income redistribution, a multifaceted security apparatus, and an authoritarian state that allows little room for dissent.
And what is left of him today? Challenging him, Prigozhin the man who does the dirty work, the mercenary leader and the organizer of troll farms spreading disinformation showed that the emperor was naked.
Playing between Wagner's mercenaries, Chechens and other factions within his own military, Putin has clearly lost control of the situation. This weakness is compounded by his many failures during the war in Ukraine, and exposes to the public a vulnerable Putin, forced to hide behind the barricades he has erected in the Kremlin, not against NATO, but against his own creation. . This crisis will surely cause him wounds, perhaps even fatal.
What will these developments mean for Ukraine?
What impact will all this have on the war in Ukraine? Here we come to the third lesson: for a moment, Ukrainians believed that a miracle had occurred, that a civil war in Moscow would divert the Russian army elsewhere. Actually it wasn't like that.
However, the impact of this crisis on the military remains visible, despite the fact that it is no longer possible to speak precisely about the proportions. What happened to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who have been largely out of the public eye in recent months?
What will be the impact of accusations by Prigozhin, who recently claimed that it was not the threat of NATO that caused the invasion of Ukraine, but rather the greed of Russian generals? It is too early to tell, but all this confirms once again that this war was the worst mistake of Putin's rule and reinforces the West's decision to support Ukraine. What happened last weekend was Russia's worst crisis in 30 years and it is not over yet. /Taken and adapted from "Worldcrunch"
Lini një Përgjigje