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One of the things the Trump administration got right about Russia is the understanding that economics is arguably the best way to end war...
Western leaders had a deep understanding of China and Russia in the postwar era. They no longer do. This ignorance is fueled largely by academics and the political community. A good example of how bad judgments are transferred from academia to politics is the writings of Chris Miller, a renowned historian and author of Chip Wars, a book on the history of the semiconductor industry and its geopolitical role.
The strength of the book was that it brought a new perspective to geopolitics, but it also ended with a misjudgment that unfortunately became the policy of the Biden administration.
Miller concluded that China, despite many attempts, was incapable of producing semiconductors. In fact, it is very difficult to produce high-performance semiconductors on a large scale. Taiwan specializes in this. China does not.
The Biden administration tragically concluded that it had succeeded against China when it banned exports of high-performance semiconductors. The ban had the opposite effect it intended. It created a competitive Chinese semiconductor industry, one that is on the verge of overtaking the US.
In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, Miller made another misjudgment, this time about Vladimir Putin. He says Putin is a tsar. He doesn't care about money like Trump.
"An economic contact with Mr. Putin could work if he were interested in the economy. But he is not ," he thinks.
This statement is absolutely false. If American policymakers were to listen to this, they would make another colossal mistake. Since becoming president of Russia 25 years ago, Putin has pursued a policy that we would characterize as resource-based imperialism. He is an economist by profession. He wrote these papers on the topic of “Strategic Planning of the Reproduction of the Mineral Resource Base of a Region under Market Conditions.” His gas deal with his German friend Gerhard Schröder was primarily economic. It was not a geostrategic master plan. It was about money. It only became a geopolitical issue after the annexation of Crimea. But the plans were drawn up a decade ago.
One of the things the Trump administration got right about Russia is the understanding that the economy is clearly the best way to end the war, to give Ukraine and Russia an economic perspective for the post-war era.
The talks that took place in Berlin would not have been possible without including economics in the discussions. They may still fail. But they are worth pursuing, if peace is truly the goal.
But be careful what you wish for. And remember Sun Tzu's warning, which said: " Know the enemy's plans and you will be able to predict them. " / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "EuroIntelligence"
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