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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
In the summer of 2023, Zelensky suggested that it might still be possible to hold an election and said it would happen, as he would run for re-election. However, he noted that it would be very difficult to guarantee security at the polling stations in wartime conditions.
On May 20, it was 5 years since Volodymyr Zelensky took office as the president of Ukraine. Ukrainian law dictates that presidential terms cannot exceed 5 years. However, the law also requires the president to remain in office until a new head of state is elected.
And because of the martial law currently in force, the presidential elections in Ukraine have been postponed. As expected, Russian propagandists and politicians are trying to seize this moment, claiming that the Zelensky presidency is now "illegitimate". For example, on April 28, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated:
"Zelensky's fate is predetermined. Very soon the moment will come when many people, including Ukrainians, will question its legitimacy".
Viktor Medvedchuk, who led the pro-Kremlin party Opposition Platform - For Life (and whose youngest daughter has Vladimir Putin as his godfather), echoed this approach on May 2. Medvedchuk was charged with treason in 2021 but escaped house arrest in the first days of the full-scale war.
He was recaptured in April 2022, and exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war in September of that year.
Putin himself commented on the situation carefully, saying that "this question must be answered, first of all, by the political and legal system of Ukraine." Meanwhile, Russian propagandists are telling their followers that the end of Zelensky's legitimacy began on May 21.
According to them, this can affect the willingness of Ukrainians to fight for their country. Due to a legal conflict, President Zelensky's term has officially ended. Under the Constitution of Ukraine, presidential terms are strictly limited to five years, and Zelensky took office on 20 May 2019.
At the same time, Article 108 of the Constitution of Ukraine states that the president must fulfill his duties until a new president is elected. Before full-scale fighting began, the next election was scheduled for March 31, 2024. But now, it has been postponed due to martial law, which will be in place in Ukraine until at least August 11.
In the summer of 2023, Zelensky suggested that it might still be possible to hold elections and said that if that happened he would run for re-election. However, he noted that it would be very difficult to guarantee security at the polling stations in wartime conditions.
Last fall, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Zelensky was constantly analyzing the pros and cons of holding elections, based on the situation on the front and other war-related factors. On November 6, 2023, the president declared: "Now is not the time for elections. Now is the time to defend, the time for a battle that will decide the fate of the state and its people, and not the time for the kind of misinformation that Russia would gladly welcome from Ukraine."
A statement was made against the background of the conflict between him and General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, at the time the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During the war, Zaluzhnyi became the second most popular person in Ukraine, and some Ukrainian analysts think he could be a serious competitor to Zelenskyy if he decides to run for the top job.
After many clashes on February 8, Zaluzhnyi was dismissed from his post, while on May 9, Zelensky appointed him as Ukraine's ambassador to Great Britain. "The country is at war and holding presidential elections is impossible. The majority of the Ukrainian population understands this very well. The legitimacy of the Ukrainian president is not at all in question" - says Yevhen Holovakha, director of the Institute of Sociology at the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
He points out that Ukrainians are currently dealing with "much more pressing issues than Russian disinformation campaigns about the legitimacy of our government." Volodymyr Paniotto, head of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), is on the same line.
He noted that in the fall of 2023, after Oleksiy Arestovych's announcement that he intended to run for president, there was a discussion in Ukrainian society about whether or not elections should be held. Arestovych proposed holding the election through the Diia government app, claiming that 90 percent of Ukrainians are registered there.
But Paniotto thinks the figure is inaccurate. Sociologists estimate that only 56 percent of Ukrainians use the Diia application. "In my opinion, holding elections in the current conditions is a fantasy. As neither those who are on the front line nor those who have left the country can vote," he emphasizes.
In October last year, KIIS conducted its first poll, asking Ukrainians when they thought the next elections should be held. 81 percent of respondents answered that elections should be held only after the war. The institute then surveyed people with more detailed questions and different wording.
But each time "the population clearly expressed their opposition to holding elections during the war", explained Paniotto. Even the Razumkov Center polled Ukrainians on whether or not to hold elections. A poll conducted on March 21-27 showed that 59.5 percent of respondents
were against holding elections before the end of the war; and only 22 percent viewed that idea positively.
“Gjatë javëve të fundit, ne nuk kemi kryer sondazhe mbi këtë temë; pasi nuk e shohim si një problem”- shtoi Paniotto. Të njëjtën pikëpamje ndajnë edhe partnerët perëndimorë të Ukrainës. Për shembull, gjatë vizitës së tij në Kiev në fillim të këtij muaji, Sekretari Amerikan i Shtetit Antony Blinken deklaroi se zgjedhjet në Ukrainë do të zhvillohen kur “ukrainasit të bien
dakord se kushtet e mundësojnë diçka të tillë”.
Edhe në parlamentin e Ukrainës, Verkhovna Rada, nuk ka asnjë fraksion me ndikim, që të jetë seriozisht i interesuar të kundërshtojë legjitimitetin e presidentit, sipas një burimi që foli në kushte anonimiteti për Meduza-n. Ai vuri në dukje se deputetët e kanë ngritur publikisht këtë çështje vetëm disa herë.
I tillë ishte rasti kur ish-kryetari Dmytro Razumkov sugjeroi që këtë çështje ta trajtojë Gjykata Kushtetuese. Burimi beson se çdo bisedë për “jo-legjitimitetin” e Zelensky është një përpjekje e autoriteteve ruse për të destabilizuar situatën në Ukrainë. “Është e vështirë të thuhet nëse Rusia mund të trazojë ujërat në politikës e brendshme të Ukrainës. Njerëzit nuk po protestojnë për këtë çështje. Rusët do të nxitin revoltën e qytetarëve të zakonshëm në kanalet TikTok dhe Telegram”-vazhdon ai.
Kur u pyet nëse zyrtarët ishin përgatitur për 21 maj në ndonjë mënyrë specifike, një burim pranë zyrës së Zelensky dha një përgjigje të paqartë:”Përgatitja është gjithmonë e njëjtë: të bëjmë punën tonë. Kjo përfshin luftën kundër propagandës dhe kundërshtimit që nuk është gjithmonë racionale”.
Ai shtoi se në dijeninë e tij, autoritetet kanë kryer “disa sondazhe të mbyllura” në publik në lidhje me legjitimitetin e Zelensky pas 20 majit, por ai refuzoi të zbulonte rezultatet. “Njerëzit nuk e kuptojnë gjithmonë se përse ne po pyesim për 21 majin. Askush nuk e lexon Kushtetutën gjatë drekës”- tha ai.
Ndërkaq shton se nuk ka plane për të mbajtur së shpejti zgjedhje presidenciale:
”Jemi në kohë shumë të vështira. Në këtë lloj situate, njerëzit nuk po mendojnë aq shumë për politikën. Pyesni një banor të Kharkiv-it për zgjedhjet tani, dhe do të dëgjoni diçka që nuk mund të them këtu”.
Një deputet nga një parti e madhe opozitare në Rada Verkhovna, bie dakord me këtë vlerësim.
Ai nënvizon se askush në parlament nuk po e ngre çështjen e zgjedhjeve sepse “çdo koment nga cilido politikan për këtë çështje, do të shihet si provokim”, dhe “asnjë forcë parlamentare nukflet për këtë, sepse askush nuk dëshiron të duket si një i çmendur”.
“Unë do të isha i pari që do të doja zgjedhje presidenciale, pasi jam në opozitë me Zelensky-n, por tani për tani kjo gjë është e pamundur. Si do të mund të votonin ushtarët? Po refugjatët ukrainas? Kush do të garantojë sigurinë gjatë numërimit të votave, kur mbi kokë fluturojnë raketa dhe bomba? Është e pamundur. Dhe ligji ukrainas thotë se presidenti dhe parlamenti ushtrojnë kompetencat e tyre deri në zgjedhjet e ardhshme”- shprehet ai.
Sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto also underlines that the Ukrainian opposition is not trying to exploit the idea of "Zelensky's illegitimacy". He believes this is partly due to the fact that according to all polls, the only person who can compete with the current president is Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and not any of the opposition figures (including former president Petro Poroshenko).
"Everyone else is far behind Zelensky in the polls," says Paniotto.
He thinks that if elections were held now and Zaluzhnyi decided to run, he could beat Zelensky. "But it is unclear if Zaluzhnyi will run" - he concludes. /Taken from "Meduza.io"
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