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New project "Progressive Bulgaria" emerges as leading force in polls, while political fragmentation remains an obstacle to forming a stable government
The latest polls in Bulgaria, from today's Myara survey to earlier studies this week by Sova Harris, Gallup and Alpha Research, draw a clear conclusion: Rumen Radev's new political project, called "Progressive Bulgaria", is entering the final phase towards the early parliamentary elections on April 19 as the main political force in the country.
According to the “Myara” poll, Radev’s formation secures 30.8% of the votes among determined voters, significantly ahead of GERB-SDS with 19.3%. Next in line are “We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria” with 12.9%, DPS – New Beginning with 10.6% and “Vazrazhdane” with 7.9%, while BSP – United Left stands just above the parliamentary threshold with 4.1%. MECH also remains close to the 4% limit with 3.6%, keeping the race for representation in parliament open.
A similar picture is presented in other recent polls. “Sova Harris” gives Radev’s project 30.9%, “Gallup” 29.8% and “Alpha Research” 32.6%, while GERB-SDS consistently ranks second with 19%–20%. The declared voter turnout is estimated at between 49% and 55%, which indicates a higher mobilization compared to previous elections and leaves open the possibility that the number of voters will exceed three million.
This trend does not just reflect a temporary rise of a new political force. It points to a deeper fatigue of the Bulgarian political system, characterized by repeated elections, the inability to form stable governments, and the ongoing weakening of traditional party structures. In this context, a new political platform built around a well-known figure could serve as a rallying point for the electorate.
Rumen Radev appears to be benefiting not only from his personal influence, but also from the inability of other political forces to convincingly channel public discontent. “Progressive Bulgaria” is attracting support from several segments: traditional left-wing voters, voters previously associated with protest movements, as well as more moderate citizens seeking political functionality and a reduction in institutional paralysis.
This pressure is particularly reflected in the BSP – United Left, which continues to hover around the 4% threshold without clear signs of recovery. Meanwhile, “We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria” remains in third place without any significant expansion, while DPS – New Beginning and “Vazrazhdane” maintain stable but limited support.
From mid-February to mid-March, the trend has remained stable: Radev's formation leads by around or above 30%, while rivals have failed to narrow the gap. Although the latest Myara poll shows a slight decline compared to 33.3% in mid-February, this does not change the overall picture, but signals a consolidation phase after the initial rapid growth.
At the same time, GERB-SDS remains stable, but has not managed to regain the political initiative. “We Continue Change – Democratic Bulgaria” maintains a solid base, but does not show the capacity to become a real counterweight. Meanwhile, the competition for the entry of small parties into parliament is becoming increasingly crucial, as it could affect parliamentary balances and post-election coalitions.
This trend is gradually transforming the Bulgarian political scene from a scattered fragmentation model to a structure with a new dominant pole, without however eliminating the structural conditions of instability. Polls show not only who is in the lead, but also that the very nature of political competition is changing.
Rumen Radev's advantage does not automatically guarantee governance. Current data suggests that the post-election period will depend on complex political and numerical equations. The main issue is no longer just whether the new project will come out on top, but whether it will manage to create a functional majority or a sustainable framework of cooperation.
Radev's rise is already reshaping the party system: it puts pressure on the left by absorbing part of its base, limits the space for protest parties, and makes it difficult for pro-European reformist forces to position themselves as the main carriers of change.
At the institutional level, this trend highlights a more focused competition around individual figures. At the political level, it reinforces the prospect of a parliament where no actor can bypass Radev’s camp, even if cooperation remains difficult. At the strategic level, it brings back the fundamental question: is Bulgarian society moving towards a new political configuration, or is it seeking stability through a new figure in power.
In this sense, April 19 will not only determine the winner of the elections, but also whether Bulgarian politics can move from a prolonged phase of instability towards a new, albeit fragile, model of governance.
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