FLASH
Shkruar nga John Feffer
Dodik has been nothing but a troublemaker, who has almost single-handedly prevented Bosnia from functioning as an effective state.
In the event that Donald Trump wins the November presidential elections in the USA, there will be very dramatic developments. Mexico will face a major border crisis. China will be hit by a new wave of tariffs that Washington will impose on it. Ukraine will begin to prepare for abandonment by its main ally.
And Milorad Dodik will tear Bosnia Herzegovina apart. Perhaps you have never heard of the latter. He is the leader of Republika Srpska, the majority Serb entity within Bosnia. For years, Dodik has threatened to declare his enclave an independent state.
In December of last year, he said in an interview for a Serbian TV station that he would have taken this action since Donald Trump was elected president for the first time in 2016, but "he got scared and didn't do it." If Trump is re-elected, he promises to take this step.
If I had a big troublemaker in my house, and he announced one day that he was going to live somewhere else, I would be very happy. And Dodik has been nothing but a troublemaker, who has almost single-handedly prevented Bosnia from functioning as an effective state.
So, have a good trip! And yet that's not how geopolitics works. The Balkans remain a volatile region, and Russian intervention has only made matters worse. The breakup of Yugoslavia was a disaster, while that of Bosnia may be a tragic continuation of that process.
With the war in Ukraine, Europe is barely able to cope with a major war on its borders.
Can she handle two of these? In the 1990s, Milorad Dodik presented himself as a reformer who could provide high-level leadership in Republika Srpska. This contrasts with the ultra-nationalism of Radovan Karadzic, who led the enclave from 1992-1996, but then went into hiding while a reward was placed for his capture as a war criminal.
Backed by the West, which surrounded administrative buildings in the capital Banja Luka to oppose Karadzic's loyalist forces, Dodik took office as the region's prime minister in 1998. It wasn't long before he began behaving like Orbán.
Like the Hungarian prime minister, Dodik saw many opportunities on the right side of the political spectrum.
And as in the case of Orban, it was a political defeat that prompted him to wake up and return to nationalism. In 2000, Dodik failed in his bid to become president of Republika Srpska, receiving only 25 percent of the vote in a race against a nationalist candidate.
Very soon, it would be positioned where most of the voters gathered. In the early 2000s, Dodik was gaining ground with his promises to extricate Bosnia from the clutches of international authorities and Republika Srpska from the clutches of Bosnia. He followed the same illiberal playbook of Orbán and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
However, the United States was still supporting Dodik in the early 2000s as a force guaranteeing stability, even though he was actually preparing to secede from Bosnia. While European liberals talked about Bosnia's accession to the EU, Dodik was going in the other direction, satisfying the Euroscepticism of his audience.
Many Serbs in Serbia and Republika Srpska felt betrayed by Europe, as European countries supported Croatia and Bosnia during the wars in the former Yugoslavia. Serbia remains outside the EU and NATO, so Dodik can easily benefit from policies based on citizens' discontent.
In 2019, Dodik came out as a genocide denier, calling the Srebrenica massacre a "fabricated myth". And like other illiberal leaders, he was amassing a lot of wealth through corrupt acts. Using a familiar Trump tactic, Dodik has denied every accusation made against him, and has complained of a witch hunt against him.
However, Republika Srpska is not united behind Dodik. In the last election in October 2022, he received only 47 percent of the vote against the liberal anti-corruption candidate Jelena Trivić, who received almost 43 percent of the vote. Given the accusations of manipulation of the process, it is possible that Dodik lost the race.
In any case, the 'Trump' of the Balkans is back in power, and intends to do his part to destroy Bosnia, the rule of law, and with allies, Putin and Trump, the international community. But Dodik is not the only reason why Bosnia is heading for separation.
Fragility is practically embedded in the country's DNA, thanks to the provisions of the Dayton Agreement of 1995. According to the constitution that emerged from the Dayton process, Bosnia is a country with two constituent parts (the Republika Srpska and the Federation inhabited mainly by Bosniaks and Croats) and three presidents (a Bosniak, a Croat and a Serb).
This structure has guaranteed that Bosnian politics is dominated by ethnic rivalry. Even the Federation has complicated things by focusing on its own communal interests. To further complicate matters, this structure is overseen by an outsider, the High Representative, who has broad powers, including the ability to enforce laws.
Recently, High Representative Christian Schmidt passed a new election law to introduce electronic vote counting and prevent convicted war criminals from running. This was Schmidt's tenth intervention in Bosnian affairs, and in itself is not a good sign.
Bosnja ka tashmë statusin e vendit kandidat për në BE, por vetëm 18 për qind e banorëve të Republikës Srpska e mbështesin këtë (60 për qind thonë se nuk e dinë se çfarë përfitimesh u jep anëtarësimi). Korrupsioni është ende i shfrenuar, PBB-ja për frymë është rritur me disa mijëra dollarë.
Por hendeku me Bullgarinë është dyfishuar, në 8.000 dollarë, dhe shumë të rinj po largohen nga Bosnja, sa që vendi është në krye të listës së vendeve evropiane për ikjen e më të arsimuarve. Lufta në Ukrainë e ka ndihmuar Bosnjën t’i afrohet NATO-s dhe BE-së. Por Dodik është i vendosur të ndryshojë gjithçka.
Kur James Ker-Lindsay i konsideroi “boshe” kërcënimet e Dodik për shkëputje në një analizë të gjerë në vitin 2015, një faktor kryesor ishte ngurrimi i Rusisë për të mbështetur ekstremizmin e Dodik, si dhe mbështetja e madhe për një Bosnjë të bashkuar, që vinte si nga BE ashtu dhe Shtetet e Bashkuara.
Një dekadë më vonë, Rusia duket e gatshme të mbështesë çdo lëvizje që e poshtëron Perëndimin dhe shpërblen aleatët e saj evropianë (si Serbia dhe Republika Srpska). Sa i përket Bashkimit Evropian, zgjedhjet parlamentare muajin e ardhshëm, ka të ngjarë të çojnë atje shumë politikanë të ekstremit të djathtë që simpatizojnë nacionalistët serbë, si udhëheqësi aktual në Beograd, Aleksandar Vucic.
Dhe nëse Donald Trump fiton në nëntor, e djathta ekstreme do të ketë sërish një aleat në Uashington. Nuk është çudi që Dodik, është duke pritur rezultatet e zgjedhjeve presidenciale amerikane, përpara se të bëjë lëvizjen e tij. Sigurisht, ai e sheh shkëputjen si një proces, dhe jo thjesht një ngjarje.
Srećko Latal shkroi së fundmi në Balkan Insight:Që nga vera e vitit të kaluar, Dodik ka i përshkallëzuar përpjekjet e tij separatiste, duke dekretuar një numër ligjesh të diskutueshme, të cilat më pas u miratuan edhe nga Asambleja Kombëtare e RS, duke e dëmtuar punën e Gjykatës Kushtetuese të Bosnjës.
Shumë ekspertë paralajmërojnë se këto ligje, kanë krijuar dy sisteme ligjore paralele dhe kundërshtare midis tyre, duke përfaqësuar de fakto fillimin e një ndarje. Mjedise të ndryshme ligjore, kanë krijuar gjithashtu një mundësi për incidente mes policisë së shtetit dhe policisë së Republika Srpska, duke ndjekur udhëzime të ndryshme ligjore.
Ashtu si “Bota ruse” e Putinit, Dodik dhe nacionalistë të tjerë serbë kanë si vizion “Botën serbe” ku të gjithë serbët mund të jetojnë së bashku, pavarësisht nga kufijtë aktualë. Dhe mund të shohim një retorikë të ngjashme rreth “Shqipërisë së Madhe” nga kryeministri i Kosovës Albin Kurti.
Nëse këtyre vizioneve u lihet rrugë e lirë, ato do të copëtojnë jo vetëm Bosnjën, por edhe Maqedoninë dhe Malin e Zi. Për momentin, kryeministri serb Aleksandar Vucic nuk i ka mbështetur hapur planet e Dodik për shkëputje nga federata boshnjake.
But if the balances change, and Serbia's efforts to join the EU fail , then Vucic can completely tie his fate with Putin in the East and Dodik in the West. An anti-liberal axis could repeat the First World War by fighting over the fate of Bosnia and the rest of the Balkans.
The Kremlin is watching all this very carefully. Its plan B, if it cannot reduce its neighbor to the status of a puppet state, will be to turn Ukraine into a kind of Bosnia: divided, weak and politically incoherent.
The Kremlin will use Donbass, as much as some Serbian nationalists today use Republika Srpska as a means to keep Bosnia from being a powerful neighbor. And if the European Union and the United States, increasingly dominated by far-right politicians, allow Bosnia to disintegrate, it would send a strong signal to Russia about Ukraine's possible fate. If provocateurs like Dodik are not challenged, Europe will indeed face another possible war on its borders./ Adaptation: "Pamphlet", Taken from: "Eurasia Review"
Note: John Feffer, analyst and director of Foreign Policy In Focus.
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