FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The Lek is strengthening further in the exchange rate with the Euro during this week. According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on Wednesday at ALL 104.05, marking a new historical minimum level. The Euro-Lek exchange rate is down by 11.5% compared to the same period a year ago and by 8.9% since the beginning of this year.
According to agents, in the last two weeks the fall of the Euro against the Lek has the usual features of the seasonal devaluation that occurs every year in the summer period, due to the increase in foreign exchange flows from tourism.
If until the end of June the Euro-Lek exchange rate showed strong fluctuations, mainly in the downward direction, but also with short-term increasing intervals, this period the course of the exchange rate seems more uniform, with a slower but stable trend falling.
Based on data from previous years, exchange agents think that the Euro exchange rate is expected to follow a downward trend at least until the first ten days of August.
After this period, historical data suggests a stabilization with a slight upward correction trend. However, seeing the very high expectations from tourism this year, agents do not rule out that the seasonal drop in the Euro rate will last even longer. Already, among market agents, the expectation that the Euro will approach the limit of 100 lek during the summer is getting stronger.
By analogy, in the same period last year, the Euro-Lek exchange rate fell by approximately one point in the period between the middle of July and the beginning of August. However, given the trend of the last few months, this year the expectations of a drop in the rate seem somewhat higher.
The unprecedented strengthening of the Lek against the Euro this year, intertwined with the developments in the foreign currency markets, has the effect that the local currency is significantly overvalued against other major currencies.
The American dollar was exchanged on Wednesday at 94.41 lek, the lowest level since December 2009. Even the British pound continues to stay close to the lowest levels ever recorded against the lek. The British currency was exchanged today for 122.02 ALL.
The strengthening of the Lek in the exchange rate brings lower prices for the purchase of goods and services abroad. The Bank of Albania estimates that the strengthening of the lek has played an important role in mitigating inflationary pressures from abroad.
Relying on the estimates of the Bank of Albania, for the time lags of tracking the effects of the exchange rate on inflation, it is expected that the wave of strengthening of the lek that started especially after the month of May will begin to be felt in the progress of inflation after the fall.
The strong lek is also favoring foreign currency borrowers with income in local currency, mitigating the effects of interest rate increases on loan installments.
The state budget is also a big beneficiary of the strengthening of the lek up to this point. The strengthening of the lek is bringing about a gradual and significant reduction of the debt stock in foreign currency.
But, on the other hand, the strengthening of the lek is hurting the exporting sectors of goods and services, eroding their revenue base and their profit margins./Monitor
Lini një Përgjigje