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Shkruar nga Edvin Kulluri
So the question remains where the "golden mean" will be found, what it represents in a conflict. Negotiations are the art of agreement where both parties must give up something to get something.
“Trump was humiliated by Putin”, “Putin wins in Alaska”, “American soldiers kneel before Putin”, “body language showed Putin’s superiority”, etc., etc. These were more or less some of the headlines of leftist newspapers in Europe and somewhat less among those in the USA after the meeting of the US and Russian presidents in Alaska, two days ago! A meeting from which many expected an immediate ceasefire, some final agreements between Ukraine and Russia with American mediation, for the moment has simply given peace a chance. While others who were eagerly awaiting the failure of the table both as opponents of Trump and as triumphants over Russia, received neither one nor the other, but only the postponement of the end of the talks.
In fact, the picture after the meeting did not satisfy either side. Neither those who expected an agreement nor those who want the war to continue until the final victory over Russia. And for this there are several reasons that originate more with the critics of the meeting than with the parties at the meeting. Part of Europe and Trump's permanent ideological opponents are still not clear whether the opponent is Trump or Putin. Even worse, they equate them to the point of madness. The zeal of the left against the American president, which has its roots in his victory in his first term, i.e. 2016, has not only not died down but has even increased. Despite the fact that this time they are not "burning" the streets of America with the "woke" movement, on a rhetorical level we are at the same point. The only one who has understood that politics does not work like that is Rama, who, since speaking as "Zeqo's mother at the top of the hill" on CNN, is now trying to rent Kushner with Sazan! But Rama has no weight in international politics, so those who really matter in the left or liberal camp, by continuing the same approach, are complicating matters more than they are solving. Until they determine who the opponent is, they are doomed to sow confusion.
But let's analyze the contradictions that the Anchorage agreement entails. First, the aforementioned aggressive actors deliberately forget that during the Biden presidency the West could neither defeat Russia in Ukraine, nor did they manage to regain part of the occupied territories. In addition, they spent hundreds of billions of dollars on a war of the "pull and don't break" type, but which has already claimed millions of lives on both sides, causing billions of euros in damage on all sides. But surprisingly, for liberals who have "human" at the center of their existence, the value of life no longer constitutes a major problem. Otherwise, they would appear with less passion and more calm. Because according to them, if Russia does not stop now, its appetite will increase. The point is that the Russians see NATO's expansion into Ukraine as equally threatening, and so they decided to invade the eastern territories and above all Crimea, a centuries-old bone of contention for security in the Black Sea. This is as true as the fact that Russia does not have the power to start a war elsewhere as long as it cannot win the one it has started and not won in Ukraine.
Trump recognizes and accepts both of these assumptions, both Russia's inability to expand its aggression to other countries, and its insistence on keeping Ukraine out of NATO as a threat to its security. Meanwhile, Russian interests in Syria and Armenia have been badly hit, which deflates the myth of "Russian imperialism." Therefore, the fear of the Russian danger beyond Ukraine is more paranoia than a real threat. Just like the Russians who see NATO as a threat, but in fact it is more of a historical psychosis than a concrete reality. But you can't paint your opponents, you have to take them as they are and work with them as much as you can.
So the question remains where the "golden mean" will be, what it represents in a conflict. Negotiations are the art of agreement where both sides have to give up something to get something. Putin has no intention of giving up Crimea and another part of the territories won in the war, otherwise he will lose. He made this calculation before the intervention, and the situation on the ground has no reason to change his mind. The Ukrainian army, through its resistance and the support of the West, can keep the conflict without a winner or loser, but in the meantime, the economic disadvantage, the numbers in terms of human recruitment, and the inferior military industry are not encouraging data. What if they don't give up the loser today, they can lead it to defeat tomorrow. This means a total loss of sovereignty. And 80% of Ukraine does not have to fall under Russia because of the 20% occupied and populated by a Russian majority. On the other hand, according to the Wall Street Journal, the Korean scenario of separation with strong military guarantees is an option that is being strongly discussed. And perhaps this will be discussed in the meeting between the Trump administration, Zelensky, and European leaders today.
What the talks of these days will produce, does not make the Alaska meeting a failure for Trump and a victory for Putin! And no one therefore has to open the champagne for the continuation of the war. That meeting simply paved the way for talks after three years of talk only with the crack of weapons and caused a global geopolitical earthquake. Therefore, the beginning of discussions does not bring any harm to anyone, except for those who want a defeated Trump and the victims that this conflict produces every day. And of course, even the ultra-nationalist Russian radicals would be happy to continue the war with the aim of tiring Ukraine until it surrenders.
But both sides forget one thing: war is not a game where "money", that is, lives, are lost by those who fight, not by those who produce virtual victories from the couch! Some dreams are better left in the drawer! Be they liberal or ultranationalist!
The Russians must understand that they cannot revive like the former Soviet Union with a Gross National Product similar to the English, French or Italian economies taken separately. Just as the European hawks, mainly Macron and Starmer, must not forget that only the US can wage war with the power of the US behind them! No one else as long as the latter want peace!
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