FLASH
Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
Apart from Tom Dosh's PSD and Dashamir Sheh's LZHK, all small parties receive fewer mandates than they would in a pure national proportional system.
Since Berisha won the seal of the DP officially and Basha has declared that he will register his own party (if he does not win the difficult recourse in the Supreme Court), the scene of the parties that will compete in the next parliamentary elections has been clarified. Especially after the officialization of the new parties that have been created.
Under these conditions, it is worth measuring the pulse of the electorate here, which I did with a survey over the weekend, carried out with 2000 completely random SMS sent throughout the country (1152 adult residents clicked the link of the questionnaire sent by SMS and filled it out, while I statistically reweighted the sample to represent the local electorate as geographically, demographically and politically as possible).
Since my IT specialist was able to closely determine the locations of respondents through IP addresses, I was able to closely calculate the distribution of votes in the 12 districts, and even more closely, the parliamentary mandates in them.
The survey showed that only three quarters of the voters here would vote today for one party or another, among the many parties in the race. The table below shows only those that receive more than 0.5% of the votes today. I made the approximate calculation of the parliamentary mandates based on the current electoral code and the current division of electoral zones.
NOTE: Except for Tom Dosh's PSD and Dashamir Sheh's LZHK, all small parties receive fewer mandates than they would in a pure national proportional system. This is because some of their votes are scattered in districts where they cannot reach the arithmetic threshold for obtaining the mandate (PSD's votes are concentrated in Shkodër and Tirana districts and those of LZHK in Tirana, therefore the mandates of theirs). And from the division of areas according to 12 districts, the two big parties benefit arithmetically, receiving 18 mandates more than they would be entitled to in a pure national proportional.
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