FLASH
Shkruar nga Paul Wood 
On the eve of the ceasefire, the president seemed desperate. Now JDVance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff face the Iranian team, which is well-formed and has a lot of experience...
In late March and early April, the US and Iran were exchanging messages through Pakistani intermediaries. It was a kind of indirect talks. Then, Donald Trump got a phone call.
He was told that the Iranians were playing games, pulling out of a "deal" that the American side thought it had secured. "Tell them it's okay, don't worry. But tell them to look out the window..." - Trump said.
According to the US president himself, he gave the order to “destroy” the largest bridge in Iran. “Ten minutes later,” 1-ton bombs hit Iran’s B1 Bridge – 1,050 meters long and 137 meters high – and it split in half.
Trump said the officials who called him were his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance. So, the same team that will hold close-knit talks with the Iranians today at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad.
The two sides will not sit in the same room. Instead, Pakistani mediators will move back and forth between each other, in person rather than relaying phone messages. The main issue is the one Trump says started the war: Iran's nuclear program.
The gap between the two sides is very wide. The initial US position is: zero uranium enrichment by Iran, forever. Meanwhile, Iran says it has this right as a sovereign nation. Witkoff and Kushner are “hawks.”
On the other hand, Vance has never appeared happy about attacking Iran. He once said, in 2024, that “our interest... is not to go to war with Iran.” Therefore, he is perhaps the most interested in reaching a deal.
Any kind of pact will depend on the clash between these three and, of course, on Trump's own impulsive behavior. It will also depend on the Iranians. They have sent their foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
He is said to be on the five-member committee that is guiding Iran during the war. His presence is a sign that the Iranians are serious about reaching a deal. Witkoff has already met with the Iranians eight times.
His full title is U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East and Special Envoy for Missions of Peace. More importantly, he is a friend of Trump's for more than 40 years, a golf buddy, and a fellow billionaire who grew up in the world of New York real estate.
Ai ka thënë dikur se mbante një revole në kyçin e këmbës kur mblidhte qiratë e banesave të tij në Harlem dhe Bronks. Po ashtu, mbante gjithashtu në tryezën e tij një kopje të librit “Tough Jews” (Hebrenjtë e Fortë) mbi mafien hebraike. Pra, Steve është lloji i “vrasësit” (killer) në biznes që Trump e respekton.
Por Witkoff do të përballet me një ekip iranian që njihet si negociator i aftë, i kalitur prej vitesh në diplomacinë bërthamore. A është ai në lartësinë e detyrës? Ka pasur disa raporte shqetësuese se Witkoff është “jashtë fushës së tij”. Dhe jo vetëm në Lindjen e Mesme. Thuhet se ai i dha Vladimir Putinit territore që rusët as nuk i kishin kërkuar në negociatat për Ukrainën. Vetë Witkoff e ka pranuar se njohuritë e tij për çështjen bërthamore janë “sipërfaqësore”.
Gazeta “Arms Control Today” ka publikuar një analizë të detajuar mbi shkallën e injorancës së Witkoff-it për çështjen që duhet të negociojë. Witkoff është shprehur i befasuar që Irani prodhon centrifuga - gjë që në fakt e bën prej dekadash.
Ai e quajti centrifugën IR-6 të Iranit “ndoshta centrifugën më të avancuar në botë”, gjë që në fakt nuk është kështu. Gjithashtu, ai i quajti Natanz-in, Fordow-n dhe Isfahan-in “reaktorë industrialë”. E vërteta është se ato janë objekte pasurimi dhe jo reaktorë.
Në një dalje mediatike, ai e quajti Ngushticën e Hormuzit si “Gjiri i Hormuzit”. Ndërkohë, në raundin e fundit të bisedimeve në fund të shkurtit, pretendohet se Witkoff dështoi të kuptonte pozicionin negociues iranian dhe sa afër ishin të dyja palët me marrëveshjen. Nëse është realisht kështu, SHBA dhe Irani shkuan në luftë për shkak të një keqkuptimi.
Një interpretim tjetër i asaj që ndodhi atëherë është se Witkoff - “vrasësi” - mendoi se SHBA po kërcënohej dhe donte t’i tregonte Trumpit se sa i ashpër mund të ishte. Deklaratat e tij publike janë në përputhje me këtë.
Ai ka thënë se Irani ka një “furnizim të pafund” me uranium të pasuruar dhe se ishte “ndoshta një javë larg posedimit të materialit bërthamor të gradës industriale”. Dhe shtoi se pa veprimin e SHBA-së, Irani do të kishte “30 ose 40 bomba bërthamore” brenda një viti.
Edhe më shumë se Witkoff, dhëndri Jared Kushner ka ndikim te Trump. Ai mori një titull zyrtar qeveritar vetëm në shkurt, si i Dërguar Special për Paqen, por është përdorur për misione delikate diplomatike që nga fillimi i mandatit të dytë të Trumpit.
Kjo pavarësisht konflikteve të mëdha e të dukshme të interesit. Disa muaj pasi u largua nga Shtëpia e Bardhë në fund të mandatit të parë të Trump si këshilltar i lartë, në vitin 2020, Kushner mori 2 miliardë dollarë nga Arabia Saudite për fondin e tij të investimeve.
Ai ka marrë edhe 1.5 miliardë dollarë të tjerë nga Katari dhe Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe, dhe tani raportohet se fondi kap vlerën e 6.2 miliardë dollarëve. Ai merr 1.25 për qind në vit për menaxhimin e tij, pra 157 milionë dollarë tarifa nga qeveritë e huaja deri më tani, sipas Komitetit të Financave të Senatit.
The president's son-in-law is reaping tens of millions in guaranteed tariffs each year from Gulf autocracies, while shaping U.S. policy toward them. These monarchies have a vested interest in the outcome of the negotiations.
They are traditional rivals of Iran. Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman is said to have lobbied intensively for the US to enter the war. The interests of the Gulf monarchies may differ from those of the United States in these negotiations.
Who will Kushner listen to?
Vance also has a very personal interest in the outcome of these talks. He is a former Marine who served in Iraq. He then began his political career speaking out against the folly of “endless wars.”
More than any other senior figure in the administration, he is associated with Trump’s previous stance on avoiding U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts. Five weeks of this conflict have been extremely embarrassing for him, leading to a huge loss of support from his MAGA base. If he can achieve peace with Iran, it could serve as a platform for his run for president in 2028.
There are two competing frameworks for the negotiations. The US has a 15-point plan and, according to leaks, it includes a permanent commitment by Iran never to produce nuclear weapons.
This means dismantling the nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow; handing over all enriched uranium to the IAEA; and IAEA monitoring of all remaining nuclear infrastructure. The US plan also includes restrictions on ballistic missiles; ending support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and militias in Iraq; and recognizing Israel's right to exist.
Tehran, on the other hand, has a 10-point plan, which includes US recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium and continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is demanding war reparations, a pledge from the US never to attack again, the lifting of all sanctions, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region.
It will be difficult to reconcile these two lists within the two weeks that President Trump has given as the deadline for a pause in U.S. combat operations. The hope is that enough progress can be made during that time so that the ceasefire can be extended again. That depends on whether Witkoff, Kushner and Vance can craft a deal that doesn’t constitute a very visible humiliation for Trump.
On the eve of the ceasefire, Trump appeared increasingly desperate. The US is much stronger than Iran militarily, but as he discovered, you can win any battle and still lose the war. The question now is: Will Iran allow Trump to save face? / Pamphlet from “The i Paper”
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