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Russia will not withdraw from Ukraine unless it is forced out or pays a heavy price to stay.
It's only been 4 months since Putin won a fifth term in office and there are certainly no signs that the Russian president will relinquish his post.
But when the Kremlin leader finally chooses a successor, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISA), that person is likely to have the same views as Putin.
Putin's inner circle and the wider Russian government "have publicly stated their version of peace negotiations with Ukraine on terms other than capitulation".
Putin's successor is much more likely to share such views.
The Kremlin has spent years denying the existence of a Ukrainian nation and delegitimizing Ukrainian sovereignty, and this effort has had multiple and potentially long-term effects on Russian society and elite opinion.
Not only that, but ISW also said that any ceasefire would only benefit Russia and give the Kremlin time to further radicalize and militarize Russian society against Ukraine and time to rest and rebuild the military, likely before carry out a future attack on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the broader impacts of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region on the war and any anticipated diplomatic solutions to the war are not yet clear, and assessments of those impacts are premature.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during an interview with NBC on September 3 that Ukrainian forces are "conceptually" planning to hold territory in the Kursk region for an indefinite period of time, but did not provide further details about Ukraine's objectives for the incursion due to concerns about operational security.
Zelensky reiterated that the Ukrainian incursion is one aspect of Ukraine's "victory plan" to end the war on fair terms and bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Zelensky noted that Ukraine intends to exchange Russian prisoners of war (POW) captured in the Kursk region for Ukrainian prisoners currently in Russian captivity and reiterated that one of the purposes of the incursion was to force Russia to redeploy troops from the front line throughout Ukraine, especially in eastern Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far avoided redeploying effective and experienced front-line combat units likely to be needed to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk Region.
While the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region appears to have operational-level impacts on the Russian military, the incursion likely has not yet changed Putin's strategic-level thinking.
ISW estimates that Putin asserts that Russia can slowly and indefinitely subdue Ukraine through heavy advances and that Russia can achieve its goals through an all-out war against Ukrainian forces and overwhelming Western support for Ukraine, assessments that make Putin not accept peace negotiations with other conditions.
Russia will not withdraw from Ukraine unless it is forced out or pays a heavy price to stay.
There is absolutely nothing in Russian history or recent behavior to suggest that Moscow can be expected to negotiate in good faith to reach a compromise. Some territorial concessions from Ukraine may ultimately be the price worth paying for peace and freedom, but this remains moot until Russia first reaches the point where it believes that further aggression cannot bring benefits.
The full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity is likely to trigger another collapse of the Russian empire. It may take years, but Russia's historical trajectory suggests it will happen at some point, as the country has proven incapable of course-correcting through evolution rather than revolution.
A Western "reset" with the current regime will not be possible without sacrificing Ukraine's independence and the core principles of the European security order, including the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
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