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What will Wagner's mercenaries go to Belarus for?
After his landing in Belarus, Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer described Yevgeny Prigozhin as "a dead man walking". While Mark Warner, the head of the intelligence committee of the United States Senate, made a dark mood, saying that the head of Wagner has chosen "one of the few hotels without windows, to protect against assassinations".
That Vladimir Putin's enemies often fall from the tenth floor or are dosed with radioactive concoctions is part of the chronicle of Moscow's underworld empire, but perhaps too early for Wagner's head.
And this is not only because, Putin is used to serving his wild revenges as cold dishes, without rushing. But rather because, at the moment, the dictator with the cardboard army still needs the services of Wagner's contractors: certainly in Africa, where mercenaries play an invaluable role in various countries, as a guarantee of robberies and trade exchanges that allow Russia circumvent Western sanctions.
Wagner's boss, "pardoned" by Putin, arrived in Minsk early yesterday morning. Two planes attributed to his group took off, one from Rostov and one from St. Petersburg, and arrived at their destination almost simultaneously. Lukashenko announced the arrival of the guest, who he effectively took hostage on behalf of his master Putin, while giving him special treatment. The terms of the deal that the strong (but actually very weak) man from Minsk negotiated on the phone on Putin's behalf would see the delivery of Wagner's heavy weaponry to the Russian military and a commitment to enlist the mercenaries or they must go to Belarus.
Herein lies the mystery. What will Wagner's mercenaries go to Belarus for? It is plausible that Putin forced Lukashenko - who already welcomes Russian atomic bombs on his territory - to launch mercenary attacks against neighboring Ukraine from Belarus, thus opening a northern front. Officially, Lukashenko, used by Putin to systematically lie, is limited to welcoming Prigozhin's people, assuring: "There is no reason to be afraid of their presence here. Our armed forces will benefit from the experience of theirs'. But Wagner's butchers are unlikely to arrive as coaches...
Prigozhin's personal fortunes seem tied to the regrouping of his men. In Africa they will be able to operate without it. Those who decide to join the Russian army will likely die in Ukraine, while the re-employment process in Belarus will take some time. No one will tell us the truth about the fate of Prigozhin in Minsk, as well as that of his compromised colonels. But Bremmer is probably right with the expression: "Prigozhin is a dead man walking". / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Il Giornale"
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