FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Someone had told Wagner's founder that he could go far. Someone knew. Many professional observers of Russian domestic affairs are convinced that some senior officials may have supported the rebellion...
The waters have calmed. There is no longer any trace of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the Russian media. He is not even mentioned, as Vladimir Putin did this difficult week, aware of an old rule dating back to the time of the Cheka, Russia's first secret police. If I mention an enemy, I put him on your level. Last Saturday's march is not even mentioned again. Yesterday morning a group of workers in St. Petersburg dismantled the large illuminated sign at the top of the Wagner Brigade headquarters. It was solemnly inaugurated last November 7. But things change quickly.
The beginning of this article was almost obligatory, to avoid using Winston Churchill's redundant saying about Russia, which is a riddle wrapped in a mystery within a puzzle. But eight days after a military mutiny destined to go down in history as the historical period defined by Putinism, there's still a lot we don't know. Here is a quick list of the still unclear points. With the warning that within each of them there are others, and then others. Churchill was often right.
East of the march to Moscow
Even the most ardent ultra-nationalist bloggers have had to admit that the video footage provided by Prigozhin of the bombing of Camp Wagner by the Russian regular army is highly suspect. The military insurgency begins with a false premise. The attack, which supposedly claimed thirty lives, may never have happened. But if so, if there is no fuel for the collective rage, who gave the order to go, and above all who decided that the march should stop? Does Prigozhin take these decisions together with Wagner's commanders, or someone beyond them? The only sure thing is that as of yesterday, July 1, Wagner would come under the command of the Ministry of Defense. And every operation of his, especially of an economic nature, would have been studied with extraordinary attention. follow the money,
Prigozhin and the secret hand
Someone had told Wagner's founder that he could go far. Someone knew. Many professional observers of Russian domestic affairs are convinced that some senior officials may have supported the mutiny to remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who is not considered a great strategist within the military. This would explain such rapid progress. Mark Galeotti, an expert essayist on Russian security, argues that the chain of decision-making is so hierarchical and slow that it has allowed those favoring Prigozhin to wait and do nothing. By following the thread of changes at the top of the Armed Forces in the coming months, it will be possible to understand the extent of any conspiracy, if there ever was one.
The secret agreement
Nuk dihen ende kushtet e kompromisit mes Putinit dhe Prigozhin. Dimë vetëm se akuza e frymëzimit të revoltës kundër shtetit është hequr. Dhe presidenti rus u dha tre opsione mercenarëve që morën pjesë në marshim. Bashkohuni me ushtrinë, dilni në pension ose shkoni në Bjellorusi. Çdo e dhënë e mbledhur deri tani, duke filluar me atë të cituar më sipër, lë të kuptohet për fundin e Wagner. "Unë dyshoj se Moska po shpreson për një emigrim kolektiv në Afrikë," thotë Michael Kofman, një analist ushtarak amerikan dhe ekspert për forcat e armatosura ruse. “Ndërkohë, Ministria e Mbrojtjes do të kujdeset për rekuizimin e të gjitha armatimeve të rënda të Wagner-it, duke eliminuar potencialin e tij në vend. Një qëndrim i gjatë i milicisë në Bjellorusi duket i pamundur ", shton ai.
E ardhmja e protagonistëve
Shoigu është fituesi i vërtetë i kësaj krize . Ai ishte objektivi i marshimit në Moskë. Besnikëria ndaj Putinit e shpërbleu atë përtej meritave të tij. Disa orë pas përfundimit të kryengritjes, pak veta ishin duke vënë bast për të ardhmen e saj. Në vend të kësaj, ai vazhdon të shfaqet në televizion, pothuajse si zyrtar i ceremonisë presidenciale. Një sinjal shumë specifik. Sa i përket armikut të tij të madh, Prigozhin është ende i lirë, ndoshta në Minsk. Por Putin praktikisht ka njoftuar drejtpërdrejt fillimin e një sërë kontrollesh tatimore ndaj tij. Vladimir Pastukov, shkencëtar politik, ish-avokat i Fondacionit Hermitage në Moskë, tani në mërgim, pretendon se figura e kreut të Wagner mund të jetë ende e dobishme. “Herët a vonë do t'ju duhet dikush që të fajësojnë. Në këtë kuptim, Prigozhin mund të luajë ende një rol të rëndësishëm”. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
Lini një Përgjigje