FLASH
Shkruar nga Gian Micalessin
Bombs at Kharg Island Terminal Would Stop 85% of Tehran's Exports
Sinking Iran and crippling China. This is Donald Trump's double blow to inflict a new defeat on the Dragon.
As in the case of Venezuela, the weapon this time is oil.
Oil, in the event of an American attack on the Islamic Republic, would have an adverse effect not only on the economy, but also on China's strategic political reputation.
The Dragon, accustomed to presenting himself to the world as the champion of the so-called "Global South," would find himself, for the second time since the beginning of the year, passively watching the fall of a "friendly" government decimated by American military power.
To understand "The Donald's" plan, one need only look at the crude oil routes. With 209 billion barrels hidden underground, the Islamic Republic controls the third-largest reserves in the world after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. And, pumping out roughly 3.2 million barrels a day, it is also the world's sixth-largest producer.
But because of sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, 80% of this wealth has no outlet outside China, which uses these shipments to cover 14% of its consumption. So far, it has been a golden opportunity for Beijing, which, thanks to the reluctance of other markets to challenge the sanctions, is able to secure Iranian crude oil at prices around $6-10 per barrel lower than official prices.
However, the train is in danger of ending. And to stop it, it is not necessary to destroy the regime in Tehran. This operation risks being long and complicated, given the complexity of Iran's energy system and a security apparatus capable of surviving the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his politico-religious elite.
To block Iranian oil, it would be enough to bomb the terminal on Kharg Island. By hitting this oil terminal, Trump would cut off the country's jugular vein, an essential passage for a flow of 7 million barrels per day, equivalent to 85% of Iran's crude oil exports. Thanks to the absolute air superiority already demonstrated last June during the so-called "12-Day War", the US would be able to block Iranian crude oil exports in less than 24 hours, forcing China to secure energy supplies that previously covered 14% of its consumption.
A devastating blow for Tehran, but also for Beijing's economy, which would find itself incurring much higher costs for its own production, becoming much less competitive in international markets.
But the worst blow would be the political-strategic one. After allowing Nicolas Maduro, repeatedly portrayed as a "good friend" bound by "mutual trust," to end up in American prisons, the Chinese president would now find himself witnessing an attack on Iran, a country previously described as a "strategic partner" worthy of occupying a "prominent place on China's diplomatic agenda in the Middle East."
This would be a tremendous step backwards for a Chinese president who, just last April, promised to "continue to provide assistance" to all friends and allies in the vaunted "Global South." /Adapted from Il Giornale /
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