FLASH
Shkruar nga Edward Lucas
Although Trump threatens to withdraw, control over strategic bases remains the main lever of European pressure. By making the rent-free stay of American troops conditional, the allies could force Washington to reconsider the real value of this "military archipelago."
One of them is related to what George Orwell called Britain: an outdated military satrapy of the superstate of Oceania in its war with Eurasia. He was not talking about the economics of the deal, but for any hegemon, whether it is Big Brother in the dystopian world of the novel “1984” or the Donald Trump administration in real life, an endless land-based aircraft carrier is very useful.
Also useful to the Americans is the Ramstein base in Germany, or what could be called “Snoop-post One,” the giant spy station at Menwith Hill in Yorkshire, England, as well as at least 275 other facilities in 15 European countries.
These range from the largest US military hospital in Landstuhl, Germany, to the super-secret underwater groups that detect Russian and Chinese submarines descending into the North Atlantic through the spaces between Greenland, Iceland, and the British Isles. This military archipelago represents a colossal investment by American taxpayers over decades, not only in combat capabilities, but also in schools, clinics, and entertainment centers that create a family-friendly environment for Americans abroad.
How much does the US pay us for all this? Almost nothing. Under agreements negotiated decades ago, our American protectors live here rent-free, or even directly subsidized by European governments.
Not only that, but over 80,000 troops and civilians stationed in Europe are in many cases exempt from taxes and other obligations. A friend of mine is married to an American intelligence officer who works for a secret organization in Britain.
Thanks to her work, they pay neither local tax nor VAT on school fees. The family is very hopeful that the transatlantic alliance will last another 6 years, until the children finish their high school diploma. The parents have bigger concerns.
With NATO's annual summit in Ankara just three months away, the alliance appears on the brink of disintegration. Trump and his team are expressing disdain every day, declaring that allies should start learning to fight for themselves, as the US will no longer be there to help them.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says NATO is not a very good deal and will be reconsidered when the Gulf War is over. For their part, the Europeans are also very angry with the US.
France has refused supply flights to Israel, Italy blocked military aircraft from landing at the Sigonella base in Sicily, and Spain closed its airspace to attacks on Iran. Britain is also delaying routine approvals for the use of RAF Fairford by US fighter jets.
It is easy to foresee a crisis where the US could announce a “pay-to-play” model, where only the big spenders are covered by the security umbrella. A difficult situation for Britain, which already ranks 13th out of 32 members in terms of the weight of defense in GDP.
But the reality is this: Congress has approved funding for a presence in the Baltics, and allies like Poland have strong lobbies in Washington. The US presence in Europe is vital for global espionage and defense against Russian, Chinese, Arctic, and North Korean threats.
It is also important for counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East and Africa (AFRICOM is headquartered in Stuttgart). Although Europe is dependent on the US, which would cost $1 trillion to replace, the dependence is mutual.
The Europeans have their cards in their hands. Donald Trump speaks the language of the real estate business. So a good tactic would be an audit of the value of these bases and a look at the balance sheet.
These bases often occupy key locations with excellent infrastructure. For example, Ramstein base would be worth over £5 billion to the German taxpayer if the Americans left and it was converted to civilian development.
The key to this showdown will be unity. Trump is playing the game of “divide and rule,” but if all the countries that have these bases unite, even Big Brother will be forced to listen./ Adapted from “Pamphlet,” from “The Times”
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