FLASH
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Iran wants this war to stop, but it cannot afford for it to end without a final solution. Iranian leaders have repeatedly said that the US-Israeli war must end on their terms and that a simple ceasefire will not suffice. The Islamic Republic appears to have inflicted enough pain to help prevent regime change or ground invasion so far, but a hasty and unilateral exit by US President Donald Trump without an agreed-upon end to the war would leave all sides with unfinished business.
Officials in Tehran want to avoid a repeat of the war and believe a ceasefire would be little more than a pause, allowing the US and Israel to regroup and strike again. That is why guarantees against a repeat of the conflict were among the main demands Iran put forward to end the war. Others included a complete cessation of attacks by both the US and Israel, including on Iranian proxies, as well as reparations, sanctions relief and recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz. There is no guarantee that a US withdrawal would meet any of these conditions.
The bottom line is that Iran needs Israel to be contained by Washington. It is likely concerned that Israel will seek to maintain broad operational freedom over Iranian skies, as it did after agreeing to ceasefires in both Gaza and Lebanon, meaning that an American withdrawal may not guarantee an end to Israel’s own war with Iran or with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
That is why Iran’s priority after a possible US exit would be to draw Washington back to the negotiating table, potentially maintaining pressure on the global economy and preventing a collapse in oil prices. On the other hand, a US exit could strengthen Iran’s developing system of “toll booths” in the Strait of Hormuz, where the Islamic Republic controls ships and demands millions of dollars for passage.
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