FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
While global attention has focused on President Donald Trump's authoritarian style and his constant attacks on the rules of American democracy and the international order, less has been said about the real balance of his economic policies, beyond the issue of tariffs.
Although financial markets have performed positively and the US stock market has risen, the general perception among citizens is that living conditions have deteriorated. This dissatisfaction is clearly reflected in surveys. Economic data are not catastrophic, but they are worrying. Inflation remains above the 2% target, at 2.7%, Gross Domestic Product is growing more than expected, but unemployment is increasing.
During the election campaign, Trump had described the economy inherited from Joe Biden as a “disaster” and promised a “new golden age” for Americans. A year later, that era is nowhere to be seen. Inflation remains at about the same levels as at the end of the Biden presidency, while unemployment, which was at a historic low of 4.2%, has risen to 4.7%.
According to analysts, including conservatives at the Wall Street Journal, the main problem is not just the numbers, but the uncertainty created by Trump with frequent statements and customs policies that change according to political interests. This has led many companies to offer mainly part-time work. As a result, job security has decreased and wages are not growing at the same pace as prices. The costs that directly affect daily life, housing, food and bills are increasing faster than official inflation, which is kept relatively low thanks to the fall in the price of oil and fuel.
Trump downplays the negative data, calling it a “Democratic slogan” problem, but within his team there is real concern about the economic affordability crisis and its impact on the November elections. The hope is linked to the effects of the budget law, the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” which provides for lower taxes for businesses and less regulation, with the aim of stimulating growth.
However, the current economic growth is not accompanied by new job creation. On the contrary, there are fears that excessive financial stimulus could cause new price increases, especially if Trump manages to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply.
Polls show that Trump's support is falling. Most Americans view him negatively, while only 36% approve of his handling of the economy.
Beyond the economic cycle, analysts see a deeper shift. Trump, who in his first term championed a free-market economy, is moving the United States toward a more commanding model, akin to state capitalism. This includes efforts to directly influence the Federal Reserve, the political use of regulatory authorities, and direct intervention in companies and markets.
The examples are numerous: from the proposal to impose a cap on credit card interest rates, which caused a drop in bank shares, to pressure on oil companies to invest in Venezuela; from the state's entry into Intel's capital, to the conditionality of industrial agreements and the export of chips to China. Not to mention the ban on offshore wind turbines and the borderless opening to cryptocurrencies.
According to many economists, including conservatives, the US is moving from a liberal economy to a form of clientelistic capitalism, where the success of businesses depends more on fulfilling the president's wishes than on market rules./ Corriere della Sera
Lini një Përgjigje