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The main question is not whether the Iranian regime will change, but when and in what form...
Iran's clerical rulers used an unprecedented level of force to suppress mass anti-establishment protests, which lasted for weeks and posed the most serious threat to the regime in decades.
Although the authorities managed to survive this wave of unrest, many analysts believe that the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic has been severely damaged and that long-term changes are inevitable.
According to observers, the recent protests marked a significant turning point compared to previous movements.
Unlike previous years, when demands focused on economic or social reforms, this time the protesters openly called for the overthrow of the regime and the removal of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Violence escalated significantly, with attacks on religious institutions and direct clashes with security forces, leaving thousands dead.
In an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that what is happening in Iran is "on a completely different scale."
According to him, protests are becoming increasingly frequent and radical, and citizens' demands are now fundamental: systemic changes, not just reforms.
A key factor, Vatanka says, is the Iranian regime's perception that foreign powers are trying to exploit the situation. Authorities in Tehran have repeatedly accused the United States and Israel of involvement, making their response harsher and the situation more dangerous.
US President Donald Trump has condemned the deadly crackdown on protesters and called for new leadership in Iran, even threatening military action.
However, according to Vatanka, Trump does not have a clear strategy for Iran. He intervened verbally at the height of the protests but backed down after they subsided, indicating that he is not willing to involve the US in a protracted conflict or a state-building process.
Regarding a scenario similar to that of Venezuela, where Washington tried to pressure President Nicolas Maduro to step down, Vatanka says this would require cooperation from within the Iranian regime itself.
Any real change would have to involve the removal of Ali Khamenei; otherwise, a reorganization of power within the same system would satisfy neither the people nor the opposition.
Although the Iranian regime survived this wave of protests, analysts warn that popular discontent is deepening and the foundations of the Islamic Republic are more fragile than ever. The main question is not if Iran's regime will change, but when and in what form. /Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “TheGeopost”
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