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US bank Goldman Sachs is warning of severe energy consequences if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a month due to the conflict in Iran. According to its assessment, in such a scenario, natural gas prices in Europe could increase by up to 130%.
Markets reacted immediately. European natural gas futures rose by about 50%, reaching a one-year high of 47 euros per megawatt-hour by midday on Monday. The increase is linked to disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows to Europe as a result of the war in the Middle East.
The situation was further complicated after energy company QatarEnergy suspended LNG production at the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed complexes after a drone attack on a water tank at the facilities. These facilities represent about 20% of global LNG supply.
For the European Union, the suspension of exports from Qatar affects about 15% of its LNG imports. This increases competition for cargoes on international markets, especially for supplies from the United States, and pushes companies to bid more aggressively.
Meanwhile, LNG tanker operators have cut off passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime artery for the region's energy exports. Any blockage at this strategic point immediately increases the risk premium in prices.
The risks are compounded by the relatively low level of gas reserves in the EU. Currently, deposits are below 31%, compared with around 40% in the same period last year. This lower reserve base limits the market's ability to withstand an external shock and makes it more vulnerable to supply disruptions.
According to the analysis, the combination of the loss of production from Qatar, restrictions on shipping and lower reserves in Europe is creating a period of high volatility in the energy market, on the eve of the upcoming winter season.
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