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If the election were held today, Labor would take 479 seats, out of the 326 seats needed to win a majority in the British Parliament.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called the next general election in the United Kingdom, which will be held on July 4, 2024. After the announcement of early elections, it has been distributed and electoral campaigns have already started. The favorite polls to win see Labor facing the Conservatives in power.
After 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer's Labor has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.
" The Guardian " has done research, where it has tracked the latest polling averages, sourced from all the main British polling companies, up to election day.
-Tendency of voters today
In the survey presented by "The Guardian", the big difference between Labor and the Conservatives is noted. Labor led by Keir Starmer would lead with 44.8 percent if the election were held today. Meanwhile, on the other hand, the Conservatives led by Rishi Sunak, seem far from a victory in the next elections, with only 23.7 percent.
- What has been the tendency of the voters in the last 3 years
In the research done by "The Guardian", the trend of the voters has been in an upward trend in favor of the opposition led by Labour. Who in May 2021 were ahead with 41.4 percent in front of the Conservatives who ranked second with 31.2 percent. So in three years, Labor has grown by almost 3.4 percent, while the Conservatives have fallen by 7.5 percent.
How would the seats in Parliament be divided if the elections were held today?
Polls have managed to predict who will win in the UK electoral system. What matters is the number of seats each party wins in parliament, which is decided by individual contests in 650 constituencies.
If the election were held today, Labor would take 479 seats, out of the 326 seats needed to win a majority in the British Parliament. Meanwhile, Sunak's Conservatives would suffer a major defeat, ending up with 92 deputies. The Scottish National Party would get 12 MPs. The Liberal Democrats would take 44 seats. Meanwhile, the small party together would get 23 MPs.
This is a drastic change, if compared to the election of 2019, where the Conservatives won the elections and managed to get 365 MPs, compared to 202 of the Labor Party who remained in opposition.
How accurate are poll projections?
A professor of politics at the University of Manchester, Rob Ford, said that despite the polls, Labor could have a 15-point lead and fall short of a majority, as it depends on where those votes are.
If the election is close, polls become less predictive of the outcome. Other limitations of designing the seat count from the national vote include the fact that the Lib Dem seat count is difficult to infer from the national vote because, while their national support is much lower than the two main parties, in certain constituencies they have a significant presence. Even national polls are not very informative about what will happen in Scotland, and polls there are rarer./ Pamphlet
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