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Shkruar nga Stefano Montefiori
The political crisis may also lead to the resignation of the President of the Republic and early presidential elections
The government of French Prime Minister Barnier is over. Not yet formally, but we will have to wait on Wednesday for the "motion de censure", or in Albanian, the vote of confidence. From a political point of view, the result of the recent negotiations is clear: the prime minister has made some concessions on the financing of social security, but not enough for Marine Le Pen, who has therefore announced her intention to vote no confidence.
Emmanuel Macron's sudden dissolution of the National Assembly on the eve of the European elections, on June 9, continues to bring chaos to French political life. Legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 created an ungovernable parliament with three blocs unable to reach a majority and cooperate with each other. After fifty days of consultations and political deadlock, President Emmanuel Macron finally gave the post of prime minister to 70-year-old Michel Barnier, a major figure in old French politics and so far supported by Marine Le Pen and her 125 MPs.
Now, after only three months in government, Marine Le Pen announces that external support is over. The National Assembly will present a no-confidence motion and vote for the one presented by the new Popular Front, the left-wing coalition.
"All maneuvers to save the Barnier government have failed. It will fall. And Macron, the one responsible for the financial and political crisis, must go to give the word to the French again," wrote the leader of France insoumise, Jean-Luc Melenchon, in X.
We vote on Wednesday, the votes of the left and the National Assembly together cross the threshold of 289 to achieve a majority and the Barnier government will officially fall. The prime minister will remain in office on current affairs and on Saturday will attend the inauguration of Notre-Dame cathedral - five years after the catastrophic 2019 fire - as the outgoing prime minister.
Like his predecessor Gabriel Attal, in office for just six months, he attended France's next major national event in 2024, the Paris Olympics, as the outgoing prime minister.
"The National Assembly will activate the no-confidence vote mechanism, barring a last-minute miracle," party president Jordan Bardella announced this morning. The last-minute miracle, meant to change the social security law and give up a crucial part of the pension reform, did not happen.
The opposition, the left, but now also that of the Assembly, accuse the government of a policy of consolidation of public finances, which, however, according to them, falls on the shoulders of the middle class and the popular classes. At the beginning of his mandate, Prime Minister Barnier denounced a very serious situation and the need to find 60 billion euros to start filling the gap in public finances. Marine Le Pen had conditioned her external support for the government on three priorities: attention to not burdening ordinary citizens with new cuts and taxes, a new, stricter immigration law and a reform of the electoral law in the sense proportional.
In general, Marine Le Pen and the MP consider that they have not been consulted enough, they repeat that the 11 million French who voted for them, continue to be ignored and therefore they have decided to pull the plug on the government.
Until now, Marine Le Pen had wanted to appear cooperative to the Barnier government, a way to further accredit her increasingly institutional, appeasing and accountable figure, at the cost of displeasing the militant base. Her attitude may have also changed as a result of the trial in which she is accused of having an affair with European parliament assistants who were instead used to serve the party in Paris.
The prosecution has asked for five years in prison and ineligibility, sentencing is set for March 31, 2025. If the prosecutor's demands are accepted, Marine Le Pen will not be able to run for the 2027 presidential election, but the political crisis could also lead to the resignation of President of the Republic and early presidential elections, requested by both the new Popular Front and the National Union.
Emmanuel Macron has always ruled out resignation and no provision of the Constitution requires it. But it will not be possible to vote for a new National Assembly before next summer, because the Constitution itself requires a year to elapse between one snap legislative election and another. To overcome the political deadlock, President Macron would have to find another prime minister this time capable of lasting more than three months, an almost impossible task given the balance in the National Assembly; or resign, to allow early presidential elections in the first weeks of 2025.
In these dramatic hours for French democracy, President Emmanuel Macron is also absent in Paris, because he is engaged in a state visit to Saudi Arabia, from which he will return - if the plans remain unchanged - only on Wednesday evening, time at which Barnier will have officially dropped./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
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