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Oil prices rose on Friday, but projections are showing they will suffer their biggest weekly decline since March 2023.
The lack of major supply disruptions as a result of the conflict between Iran and Israel has caused geopolitical risk premiums to almost completely disappear.
Brent crude rose 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $68.26 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 60 cents, or roughly 0.9%, to $65.83 a barrel.
During the 12-day conflict that began on June 13 after Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, Brent prices briefly rose above $80 a barrel, but then fell to $67 after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the two countries. As a result, both contracts are on track to post a weekly decline of about 12%.
"The market has almost completely ignored the geopolitical risk of the past week and is returning to a market driven by economic fundamentals," said Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah.
Attention is also focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on July 6 and is expected to set production levels for August.
According to analysts, there may be room for another month of accelerated easing of production restrictions, but everything will depend on demand indicators during the summer.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), released on Wednesday, showed that crude oil and fuel stocks fell last week, while refining activity and demand increased.
Also, Thursday's data showed that gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub have fallen to their lowest level in more than a year.
At the same time, Chinese imports of Iranian oil increased significantly in June, as a result of accelerated shipments ahead of the escalation of the conflict and increased demand from independent refiners.
China is the world's largest oil importer and the main buyer of Iranian oil.
According to data from ship tracking company Vortexa, China purchased over 1.8 million barrels of Iranian oil per day during the period June 1–20, a record according to the firm's data.
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