FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The old global architecture is crumbling in the face of a perfect storm of economic, climate and technological crises. Without a world leader at the helm, the year 2026 is becoming the battlefield of a new and unpredictable era...
The main risks for the year that has just begun point to an increasingly unstable world. The old neoliberal architecture is decomposing and the US is officially withdrawing from global supremacy. This is also made clear by the new US National Security Strategy. The world is entering a period where power is being distributed among “predatory” powers and a multilateral system without a single hegemon.
1. Trump's economic "swamp"
Financial assets are massively overvalued. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is currently driving US GDP growth, but productivity gains remain elusive. There is a risk that AI will fail at complex tasks, triggering a market crash that could wipe out $35 trillion in wealth. Trump’s tariffs are fueling inflation, while US debt has reached 125 percent of GDP. China and the G-20 are unlikely to help in the event of another 2008-like crisis.
2. Disintegration of the current global order
Not only Trump, but also Putin and Xi Jinping are destroying the old liberal regime. Russia seeks regional dominance, China a historic revenge, while the Global South demands decision-making. Multilateralism is breaking down: the US is leaving the WHO and cutting aid to other countries. Meanwhile, Russia and China are expanding the BRICS to create alternative currency systems to the dollar.
3. The return of the US to the Western Hemisphere
Trump is reviving the Monroe Doctrine, threatening cartels in Mexico and aiming for regime change in Venezuela. However, China is gaining ground by offering economic development. Its trade with Latin America is expected to exceed $700 billion by 2035. The risk is that the region will completely turn away from Washington, while potential military interventions in Venezuela could turn into pitfalls in the long run.
4. The Third Nuclear Age
The Doomsday Clock is at 89 seconds to Midnight. The “triangular” race between the US, Russia and China is bypassing old arms control agreements, such as the START treaty. The US is modernizing its nuclear triad at a cost of $1.7 trillion. Meanwhile, countries such as South Korea and Japan are reconsidering the possibility of arming themselves with nuclear weapons due to regional insecurity and doubts about the US’s credibility.
5. The Generation Z Rebellion
Generation Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) makes up 20 percent of humanity. It is concentrated in the Global South. Disillusioned by corruption and joblessness, young people have overthrown governments in Bangladesh and Madagascar. Many African countries spend more on debt than on education. If these young people are not integrated, the consequences will be poverty, terrorism, and mass migration.
6. An all-powerful Putin even after the war in Ukraine
After nearly four years of war, Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield. Donald Trump appears ready to impose Putin's terms for a ceasefire on Ukraine and aims for a bilateral deal with Russia. This rapprochement risks dividing the West and achieving the Kremlin's goal of weakening NATO, leaving Europe alone in the face of a more aggressive Russia.
7. Further climate degradation
Trump has pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, calling climate change a “hoax.” That has pushed back funding for poor countries to tackle the phenomenon until 2035. Meanwhile, China dominates green energy, accounting for 74 percent of solar capacity under construction. Global warming risks exceeding the critical limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature before the Industrial Revolution.
8. The Middle East will remain a "powder keg"
Gaza remains divided and devastated, while Hamas continues to refuse to disarm. Iran faces chaos: a shattered economy, extreme drought, and an 86-year-old leader. Despite sanctions and bombings, Tehran continues its nuclear program. The risk of an open war between Israel/US and Iran remains very high.
9. Artificial Intelligence as the main disruptor
Artificial Intelligence promises many advances, especially in medicine, but at the same time it is causing social unrest. Automation is eliminating jobs at a rapid pace, hitting intellectual professions. AI's ability to create massive disinformation (deepfakes) is undermining trust in democracy and making it impossible to distinguish truth from lies.
10. An unstable Asia-Pacific
In East Asia, US-China relations remain tense but “stable” through gray areas. However, Trump’s trade tariffs are hurting the economies of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) that depend on China-produced parts. The flashpoint is South Asia: India-Pakistan tensions have been rekindled after terrorist attacks. Pakistan has been encouraged by Trump’s diplomatic support, while Modi’s India feels neglected. Conflicts over Kashmir and water resources, along with Pakistan’s clashes with Afghanistan, could rekindle the spark of war in a nuclear-armed region./ Adapted from “Pamphlet”, from “Foreign Policy”
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