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The Americans have sounded the alarm about the risk of the return of conflicts in the Balkans.
The American Intelligence Community has today published the annual threat assessment report for 2024. The Western Balkans region is also included in this report, a region for which an increase in the risk of localized inter-ethnic violence is predicted.
They highlighted several cases that will have the potential for greater impact on global security and the potential for action by the United States, its allies and partners.
The report shows that nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate the situation and increase tensions to use the situation to their political advantage. It is also said that external actors will reinforce and exploit ethnic differences to increase or protect their regional influence or even to hinder the integration of the Western Balkans region in the EU and Euro-Atlantic institutions.
The report recalls clashes between Serbian nationalists and Kosovo authorities that led to the death of one police officer, and the wounding of several others, including NATO peacekeepers, in 2023.
The report further states that Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and Herzegovina and ensure the de facto secession of Republika Srpska.
Today, ODNI released the US Intelligence Community's 2024 Annual Threat Assessment. Read the report here: https://t.co/AlLUbVUVnr pic.twitter.com/0r9OtLwATw
— Office of the DNI (@ODNIgov) March 11, 2024
"His actions could encourage the leaders of the Bosnian population to strengthen their capacity to defend their interests and possibly lead to violent conflicts that could threaten the maintenance of peace ," the report said.
Commenting on the report, Jasmin Mujanovic, a political scientist who lives and works in Los Angeles, points out that such assessments are "unfortunately accurate".
" The US intelligence community believes that Dodik could initiate secession in BiH in 2024 and that if Bosnian political actors act to stop him, EUFOR BiH will not be able to prevent the spiral of violence from escalating. Also, there is an increased risk of new conflicts between Serbia and Kosovo" , commented Mujanovic on the X network.
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