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The Rwanda issue is about something bigger than sending asylum seekers there, if the plan is rejected his prestige could crumble at a time when the country is only months away from parliamentary elections.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing the biggest test of his tenure. Tonight MPs will vote on the government's most controversial plan to infiltrate Rwandan asylum seekers who arrive illegally in the country.
Debate on the bill began at noon in the House of Commons. The vote will take place around 21:00 (local time) and is seen as the biggest obstacle the conservative prime minister has faced since taking office almost a year ago.
The Rwanda issue is about something bigger than sending asylum seekers there, if the plan is rejected his prestige could crumble at a time when the country is only months away from parliamentary elections.
The text was being debated in Westminster today, the plan changed after its original form was ruled unconstitutional by Britain's High Court in November.
The plan to deport migrants, from wherever they come, to Rwanda was announced in April 2022, but has never been implemented.
"The new agreement I signed with Rwanda and the accompanying bill change everything. "The principle of moving asylum seekers to a place of safety so that their asylum claim can be examined there is consistent with the terms of the (Geneva) Convention relating to the Status of Refugees," Home Secretary James Cleverley said at the start of the meeting.
Rishi Sunak has made the fight against illegal immigration a priority, and he described the bill as "the toughest ever against illegal immigration," as he wrote today in a post on Platform X. The text describes Rwanda as a safe third country and prohibits the return of immigrants to their countries of origin.
"Circus at Westminster"
These proposals are not enough for the right wing of the conservatives. Some believe that London should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and other international human rights conventions so that it has no chance of success in court appeals.
On Monday, hard-line Brexit campaigners from GEK (European Research Group) said the bill offered only a partial and incomplete solution to the blockage of court appeals and needed very significant amendments. This Eurosceptic group, which has a lot of influence among the Conservatives, however did not give any "instructions" to its members on how to vote today.
Resignation of the Minister of Immigration
Last week, Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick resigned, refusing to support the bill.
For Labor leader Keir Starmer, if Sunak is defeated in tonight's vote, he should go to a snap election. But he added that there is no doubt that the bill will be voted on.
The Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years, are second in the polls, well ahead of Labour. According to British media, last week Sunak said they must now "unite or die".
The Conservatives have a majority in the House of Commons. Even if conservative MPs vote against the "Rwanda Security Project" or abstain, the text can be adopted with the support of independent MPs or minor parties in Northern Ireland. No draft law has been voted on at this procedural stage since 1986. If it is not approved today, the government will not be able to re-introduce it for a vote until the next parliamentary term, i.e. after next year's elections.
Even if Sunak secures the necessary votes, the bill could then stall in the House of Lords and not become law before the election.
What does the "Rwanda" plan envisage?
The "Rwanda" plan, promoted by former prime minister Boris Johnson, aims to prevent thousands of migrants from crossing the English Channel to reach British shores. Under the proposal, anyone who arrived in Britain irregularly after January 1, 2022 could be sent to Rwanda, some 6,400km away. However, in June of that year, the first flight to transport a small number of asylum seekers to Kigali was canceled at the last minute, following an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. Last month Britain's High Court ruled that the program is illegal because Rwanda is not considered a safe third country and migrants are at risk of being returned to their countries of origin, where they would be at risk of ill-treatment.
Although no deportations have yet taken place, Britain has already paid Rwanda £240m. The British government hopes to send thousands of migrants to the African country, although Rwanda currently has the capacity to host only a few hundred.
Britain currently spends more than £3bn a year processing asylum claims and the cost of housing migrants awaiting a decision from the authorities is £8m a day. Deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda would cost an average of £169,000 each.
According to official figures released by the government in August, more than 134,000 people, a record number, are waiting for the authorities to make a first decision on whether or not to grant them asylum. This number rises to 175,457 if their family members are included.
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