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Opposition victory in Hungary brings political lessons and warning signals
The surprising victory of the opposition in Hungary and the historic defeat of Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party offer important political lessons.
Despite having created a huge advantage in the electoral system, through the manipulation of electoral districts, the extensive use of state resources for party purposes, the almost total domination of the media, the use of manipulated videos and allegations of vote buying, Fidesz suffered a heavy defeat in the elections.
Orban conceded defeat and congratulated his opponent, Tisza Party leader Peter Magyar, vowing to serve the country from the opposition. Voter turnout was the highest in a parliamentary election since the fall of communism in 1989.
After 16 years in power, several factors explain this reversal. In such cases, the fall of a dominant party is usually linked to the accumulated mistakes of governance or the ability of the opposition to organize. In Hungary, both of these elements were present.
Fidesz entered the election with three main weaknesses.
First , economic performance was weak. Years of fiscal mismanagement, an economy captured by vested interests, and a weakening rule of law left the country with minimal economic growth, around 0.5 percent last year. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in inflation in 2022 and 2023, reaching 25 percent, the highest level in the European Union at the time.
Second, the management of public services was rated negatively. The state-run healthcare system, on which most citizens depend, faces poor infrastructure, a persistent shortage of doctors and nurses, many of whom have emigrated to other EU countries, and long waiting times. Hungary also has one of the lowest life expectancies in the EU, more than four years below average.
Third, corruption is widespread. According to Transparency International, Hungary ranks among the most corrupt countries in the EU. Investigative reports of misuse of public funds by officials and their families, including allegations involving Orbán's father and son-in-law, have become increasingly difficult to deny.
These problems created a situation of economic stagnation and a sense of pessimism in society. The stability that Fidesz had previously offered turned into a lack of progress.
In the absence of concrete results to improve the lives of citizens, Fidesz's campaign relied mainly on fear messages, often linked to conspiracy theories about Ukraine. Allegations of military threats from Ukraine or financing of the opposition, replacing concrete political offers.
On the other hand, the opposition led by Peter Magyar managed to change strategy. He avoided ideological clashes on topics such as immigration and LGBTQ rights and focused on a positive message. He presented patriotism as an all-encompassing and future-oriented idea, challenging Fidesz on a terrain where it traditionally dominated.
Magyar also repeatedly emphasized corruption and its connection to concrete governance problems. He expanded the campaign beyond the urban electorate, visiting small towns and rural areas, and even organized a several-day march into Romania to reach out to ethnic Hungarians living there.
Another key element was the use of social media. Being excluded from traditional media, he used platforms like Facebook and Instagram to communicate directly with voters. His messages proved simpler and more effective, while he managed to neutralize the attacks of his opponents in advance.
An early video interview, where he explained his departure from Fidesz and criticized the government, was watched by more than 2.5 million people in a country of fewer than 10 million people.
ForeignPolicy's analysis notes that this reversal was underestimated by many international observers. Given the political ties between Hungary and the United States, particularly Donald Trump's support for Orbán, the outcome has broader implications.
During the campaign, Trump expressed full support for Orbán, while other American political figures also visited Budapest to strengthen Fidesz's campaign.
According to the analysis, the result in Hungary shows the limits of political strategies based on ideological divisions and conflict rhetoric. Voters are seeking concrete improvements in their lives and react negatively to corruption.
At the same time, the opposition can be effective by challenging opponents on topics such as patriotism, expanding beyond the traditional base, and focusing on practical issues such as corruption and public services.
According to FP's analysis, a consolidated political movement can lose support when governance failures combine with a more organized and credible opposition. /Adapted Pamphlet/
Jo, jo, se ky koke derr per pace, fluturoi me pras ne bythe si ai i Washingtonit e langove te vet qe nga Izraeli e deri ne Shqiper e kujtoi se do te jete i pavdekshem si, Aleksandri Madh, Julius Caesar, Napoleon, Adolph Hitler, Stalin, Trump e co., qe kujtuan se do te jete te pavdekshem. Po, do te jene te pavdekshem si felliqesirat e kriminelet me te ndyre te njerezimit. Nuk e permenda ate emrin e qenit cifut Izrateli Anatuahu se ndyej vehten.
Po normal qe pas 16 vitesh jumben zgjedhjet. Vetem Rama sa me shume qeveris aq me shume fiton. Orban eshte zgjedhur gjithmone me vote te lire e te ndershme. Pas 16 bitesh sigurisht pushteti te konsumon. Vetem Edi Rama sa me gjate qeveris aq me shume fiton. Ne Hungari lufta ishte brenda se djathtes. Te majten hungarezet e kane perzene. Nga ana tjeter gjithe lideret e BE luftuan kunder Orban. Mbeshtetja e Trump u kthye ne bumerang. Per Hungarine ishte nje rotacion normal. Paradoksi eshte qe ata lidere e teknokrate te BE, qe luftuan Orban, mbeshtesin nje hajdut ordiner si Rama qe pas 2013 nuk lejon me zgjedhje te lira ne Shqiperi. Kjo eshte fatale per ne. Nga ana tjeter, Hungarezet jane komb me identitet, civilizim e dinjitet. E kane provuar shpesh ne histori. Sfiduan edhe Bashkimin Sovjetik. E ndeshkuan ashper te majten qe nuk hyn ne parlament dhe lufta eshte brenda se djathes. Kurse ne shqiptaret kemi krize identiteti dhe mungese respekti ndaj vetes. Asnjehere nuk e kemi ndeshkuar te keqen. Ne kete degradim na ndihmuan edhe "miqte tane" nga Perendimi, qe mbeshtesin nje hajdut ordiner qe u jep cfare te duan, mjaft qe ta mbajne ne pushtet
Aq i dhjere ne breke eshte ky hajdut kopuk Kremlinit sa e pranoi si lavire plake humbjen duke u frikesuar qe do perfundoje si Caushesku. Megjithate edhe ky duhet te perfundoje si Caushesku, qe t'i therrasi mendjes gjithe kallepi i tij si, Trap, Putani e company. Ah, poo, ne Shqiperi jane me dhjetra qe te shkojne ne boten tjeter si Caushesku.