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The main reason why Russia feels in a strong position to reject any agreement is the belief that it can benefit more by continuing the war, despite the huge economic and human costs.
Even on Christmas Eve, Russian aggression in Ukraine did not stop. The bombing of civilians continued, clearly showing that the Kremlin has no intention of giving up the war, but rather is preparing the ground for an even harsher 2026. Against this background, the Russian president's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Vladimir Putin had sent a congratulatory telegram to Donald Trump, but also stressed that "there is no improvement on the horizon" regarding peace talks in Ukraine.
After informal meetings in Miami between Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Trump's close associates - including his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, the Kremlin says it is still analyzing the information before making a decision on the further course of communication with the US. A stance that for many analysts indicates a coordinated effort by Moscow to test American positions, ahead of the 2026 US presidential elections.
Meanwhile, Moscow has strongly denied Bloomberg reports that the Kremlin has demanded changes to the US plan to end the war. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, called them “fake news” in a message on Telegram.
However, The New York Times also suggests that Russia is preparing to reject the latest version of the peace plan, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented on Christmas Eve. In this new version, Zelensky is more flexible: he says he is ready to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the parts of Donbas that he still controls, if Russia will do the same and allow the creation of a demilitarized zone.
But this compromise is not expected to be accepted by the Kremlin, which has consistently demanded the full annexation of Donbas and has ruled out any withdrawal, even symbolic, from the occupied territories after the start of the aggression in 2022. Moreover, Moscow seems encouraged by its recent advances on the ground – this week it took control of another village in the Donetsk region, Sviato-Pokrovskoe.
According to the New York Times, the main reason why Russia feels in a strong position to reject any agreement is the belief that it can benefit more by continuing the war, despite the huge economic and human costs. The Russian economy is in its weakest state since 2022, with record interest rates and a deep decline in growth, but it has not yet entered a crisis severe enough to force the Kremlin to retreat.
At the moment, Russia controls about 75% of the Donetsk region and, at the current pace of advance, it will take about 18 months to conquer the entire territory.
But if the war continues, why is Moscow still “negotiating”? According to Western experts, the real purpose of these contacts is to maintain a minimal channel of communication with the United States and avoid total diplomatic isolation. Moreover, the Kremlin seeks to avoid any new package of sanctions, such as those announced in October by Trump against Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which forced Moscow to sell oil at much lower prices.
Finally, postponing negotiations and keeping any peace plan in limbo serves another Russian strategic goal: deepening the rift between Ukraine and its Western allies. By pushing peace into an area of “impossible conditions,” Moscow is testing the West’s political will and aiming to foment divisions in support for Kiev.
“Putin has no intention of stopping the war and is not ready for any compromise, even minimal,” Ukrainian analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said in a Facebook post. “For the Kremlin, discussing Trump’s peace plan is simply a tactical game with the US to maintain manageable relations with the current US president, while simultaneously provoking tensions between Washington and Kiev.”
In this context, it seems clear that the Kremlin is not looking for an immediate solution, but is playing a long game, where peace is used as a tool of diplomatic pressure, while the reality on the ground is that of bombs and occupation. Vladimir Putin awaits the year 2026 with cold calculations, not with plans for compromise. / Adapted from “Corriere Della Sera”
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