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Moscow may be hoping that the US will force Poland to negotiate, rather than reacting militarily and opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers...
The United States has warned Poland that Moscow is planning an armed provocation against it in order to test "NATO's resolve," according to a report in the British newspaper The Telegraph.
According to what Washington is said to have included in its warning, the Russian attack could be carried out with missiles or drones against Poland's vital infrastructure, or even through the penetration of Russian soldiers across the border into Polish territory, which is also NATO territory.
Sources close to Poland's president, Karol Nawrocki, told Polish media outlet Onet that the aim of such a possible attack by Moscow, which could happen within a few months, would be to create tensions and put pressure on Ukraine's Western allies so that they suspend military and economic aid to Kiev.
"The US systematically informs Poland of any new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, with Poland not excluded in any case," a source close to the Polish president said.
Poland's security services have acknowledged that a conventional Russian attack, such as a limited ground incursion, is possible. Moscow could then claim it was an accident.
Other possible scenarios that could trigger a dangerous escalation include Russian drone attacks on infrastructure, such as power plants, or simulated air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defense systems. A Polish intelligence source said that, in the most extreme scenario, a "hybrid attack in the border area" could be carried out.
Scenarios of a Russian attack
A military intervention could involve Russian and Belarusian soldiers. According to the sources, Moscow could try to portray it as an accident, claiming the incursion was due to a glitch in GPS systems, or organize a fake rescue mission to recover a helicopter that had crashed.
According to sources, Moscow may be hoping that the US will force Poland to negotiate, rather than reacting militarily and opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin would consider a scenario in which Russian forces withdraw after negotiations a victory, the sources said. One possible condition Russia could impose on such a negotiation process would be the cessation of Western aid to Ukraine.
Several Baltic sources told The Telegraph that the possibility of a provocative Russian action against one of the Baltic states remains a serious risk. They said such an attack could be launched from Kaliningrad, in northern Poland, where Russian nuclear weapons are stored.
Moscow appears to have begun testing NATO's defensive capabilities since last year, through repeated violations of the Alliance's airspace by drones and fighter jets.
A report published on Thursday by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that Russia has most likely used ships from its so-called "shadow fleet" to launch drones over Europe. These drones have caused problems for civil aviation by disrupting flights, while also monitoring military installations and testing the air defense systems of NATO member countries.
The report recorded 144 cases of drone surveillance across Europe during the period 2024–2026, including in NATO member states such as Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Denmark. /Adapted from Pamphlet /
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