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It is time for Britain and NATO to create an Israeli-style “Iron Dome” to protect themselves from new Russian technology. This defensive system is essential to prevent military blackmail and to ensure Europe’s security in the face of missiles that evade traditional systems.
Before the 1994 Chechen War, the Russian Defense Minister was said to have boasted that he could take the capital, Grozny, “within two hours with a single air regiment.” So the Kremlin expected “a small victorious war.”
But instead, Chechen rebels forced the Russian army into a humiliating retreat after two years of fierce fighting. Even Russia's current president, Vladimir Putin, was hoping for a small, victorious war when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine four years ago.
The Kremlin expected it would all be over within two weeks, but Russian conscripts are still being killed or wounded every week, not by the hundreds, but by the thousands. Western negotiators have repeatedly tried to give Putin a chance to salvage something he could present as a victory to his people.
But despite being 73 years old - and amid persistent rumors about his health - he appears in no hurry to reach a peace deal. The latest round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks ended in Geneva last week with Zelensky accusing the Russians of using delaying tactics.
The overwhelming weight of numbers is on Putin's side. Russia has a population three and a half times larger than Ukraine's, and the latter is running out of young men to send to the front. But if Putin defeats Ukraine, what comes next?
Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl believes the Russian leader is preparing to wage war against NATO in Europe. Stahl, who is head of the Federal Academy for Security Policy (Germany’s national defense college), said last week that Putin is on a “mission” against the West.
He warned that we would experience things we could not even imagine, as there is no doubt that he would use military means if given the chance. However, it must be said that Russia had a ruined and corrupt army even before it was crushed in Ukraine. Proof of this was the diary of the Russian paratrooper Pavel Filatyev, who showed that there were no beds in the barracks, there was often a lack of electricity and water, while wild dogs roamed the base. There was not enough food, but only stale bread and a “soup” of raw potatoes, and he himself went into battle without a bulletproof vest after corrupt officers had sold them. Even his rifle was rusty.
NATO's collective defense spending is 10 times higher than Russia's ($1.4 trillion versus $146 billion) and NATO armies have equipment that functions reliably.
The idea that Russia could invade Western Europe seems absurd, and we are not facing another Munich like in 1939. But the Russian “bear” still has teeth. Russia is ahead of NATO in advanced missile technology, especially hypersonic ones that fly five times faster than the speed of sound.
These missiles maneuver in flight in a way that makes them extremely difficult to intercept, as they move unpredictably through the upper atmosphere, significantly shortening decision-making time for political leaders.
This could shift the balance of terror and be used as part of a psychological warfare campaign to intimidate NATO countries. Another threat is hybrid warfare that involves hacking, industrial espionage, election sabotage, and propaganda through so-called “Provokatsiya” – a deception designed to compromise an adversary.
Dr. Bob Seely, author of the book "The New Total War," expects to see more and more "gray zone" actions and disinformation operations in alliance with pro-Russian parties in Hungary and Slovakia.
According to him, Putin wants to re-create Russia as an anti-Western state, destroy Ukraine and dismantle NATO. Although he will not send tanks to Germany or France, he may use “little men in green uniforms” in countries like Estonia, which has a large Russian minority.
Britain has sent a battalion of soldiers to Estonia to ensure collective defense, but this also ties our fate to a region where Putin believes he has a vital interest. Observers believe the Russian president is above all an opportunist and a tactician rather than a strategist, so his plan is difficult to predict.
There is a parallel with President Trump's decision-making. Both the Kremlin and the White House operate as personality cults, where everything depends on the man at the top, who can make things up along the way, making such an adversary extremely difficult to read./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "The Intelligent Paper"
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