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Serbia's energy crisis: Orbán steps in to replace Gazprom
After a series of postponements, US sanctions against Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), the Serbian state-owned oil company, have effectively come into effect. As a result of Washington's decision, the Adria oil pipeline has stopped supplies to Serbia, while many NIS gas stations have started refusing payments with bank cards, fearing secondary sanctions on the country's financial system.
The situation worsened further when, following the revocation of NIS's operating license, the Pančevo refinery, Serbia's only one, was forced to close in early December. This has opened up a deep energy crisis with unpredictable consequences for Belgrade: possible fuel shortages, a sharp increase in oil prices, and almost total dependence on foreign imports of this strategic commodity.
The US sanctions were imposed because NIS's majority shares are owned by Gazprom, the Russian company that de facto controls the Serbian oil industry and is a pillar of Belgrade's energy policy. The US package not only targets the gas and oil sector, but also affects the banking system, risking blocking card payments and cutting off credit lines for Serbia.
In this bleak scenario, Aleksandar Vučić's Serbia, already engulfed by strong internal political tensions, risks remaining isolated on the international stage. It is at this moment that an unexpected support for many appears: that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, one of the Serbian president's closest regional allies.
After the sanctions came into effect and the Pancevo refinery was closed, Vučić reacted by ordering Gazprom to sell its shares in NIS by mid-January 2026. According to Belgrade, the departure of Russian capital would pave the way for the lifting of US sanctions and a return to normality. If Gazprom does not comply with this decision, the Serbian government has warned that it will intervene decisively, although it insists that it does not intend to nationalize the company. Until a new buyer for the Russian shares is found, Serbia's energy situation remains extremely problematic.
In this context, the Hungarian intervention is seen as a temporary lifeline. On November 27, Viktor Orbán visited Subotica, a Serbian city near the Hungarian border, to receive the “Pásztor István” award. During his speech, Orbán harshly attacked the European Union, declaring that “the old world is dying” and that Brussels, by following the line of confrontation with Moscow, is losing its international role and weight.
According to Orbán, alliances such as the one between Hungary and Serbia are essential for the stability of Central Europe and the Balkans. He stressed that the Serbs are suffering from sanctions that Budapest has managed to avoid and guaranteed that Belgrade can always count on Hungarian friendship. Specifically, after the meeting with Vučić, Orbán announced that Hungary will significantly increase oil exports to Serbia, initially doubling them and then increasing them by another two and a half times in December. In parallel, plans will be accelerated for the construction of an oil pipeline that will connect Serbia with the Russian Druzhba line, a project that is expected to be operational from 2028.
The day after his visit to Subotica, Orbán traveled to Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officially, the talks were about Hungary's energy supply, but various sources suggest that the Serbian crisis was a key topic of discussion. This was reinforced by statements by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who admitted that during the meeting, Hungary's purchase of Russian interests in energy companies hit by US sanctions was also discussed.
In this context, Orbán’s cabinet minister, Gergely Gulyás, confirmed that MOL, the Hungarian state oil company, is in talks to buy Gazprom’s stake in NIS. Furthermore, MOL could also be involved in the purchase of Lukoil’s international assets in Romania, Bulgaria, and even Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, entering a wide-ranging competition that includes giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and companies from the Gulf.
According to analysts, such an operation would bring huge strategic gains to Hungary. Control of NIS would give Budapest decisive influence over the Serbian energy sector, further strengthening its positions in the Balkans and Central Europe, following previous acquisitions of Croatia's INA and Slovakia's Slovnaft. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Inside Over"
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