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The United States is deploying fighter jets, air defense systems and aircraft carriers with thousands of troops to the Middle East, a move that has increased tensions with Iran and the potential for military action, experts say.
US President Donald Trump threatened military strikes against Iran after authorities killed thousands of people in a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests. Trump recently backed away from that threat, but has not ruled out an attack on the Islamic Republic.
Experts say the military buildup, as well as planned U.S. naval exercises in the region, increase pressure on Iran and provide more offensive military options if Washington decides to attack Iran, A2 reports.
"This could be a message to Iran that we are ready, our capabilities are in the right place," Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Radio Free Europe's Farda Radio.
Nadim added that the possibilities for US attacks on Iran are "very high," highlighting the "very aggressive" military buildup in the Persian Gulf.
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three other strike ships are headed to the Middle East, carrying more than 5,000 troops. U.S. Central Command said F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets have been deployed to the region.
Meanwhile, the US Air Force said on January 25 that it would launch a multi-day military exercise across the Middle East "to demonstrate the ability to deploy, distribute and sustain air combat power" in the region.
This activity resembles that of last year, when the US sent military assets to the region before Israel, and then Washington, carried out airstrikes, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite branch of Iran's armed forces, has responded by raising its alert level and calling on Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen to support Tehran.
The Risks
US media reports say Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran – from a sustained air campaign that could last weeks or months, to more modest and largely symbolic strikes targeting Iran’s security forces. Non-military options, including additional economic sanctions, are also reportedly being discussed.
Experts say any US military action against Iran is fraught with risks that could engulf the entire region. Tehran has vowed to strike US bases in the Persian Gulf as well as Israel, a key ally of Washington.
"The costs are unpredictable, retaliation against US allies and attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf. Regional partners do not want to pay this price," Mehrdad Khansari, a former Iranian diplomat, told Farda Radio.
Regional states have privately called on Washington to exercise restraint, concerned that a US-Iran conflict could spark a regional conflict.
Khansari argued that an air campaign alone, without a ground incursion, would not lead to regime change – if that were Washington's ultimate goal.
A ground invasion of Iran, the largest and most populous country in the Middle East, is considered impossible by many military experts.
"It keeps the issue open – like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the regime – but airstrikes alone cannot topple the regime or eliminate its security forces," he said, speculating that government forces would simply hide during the attacks and reappear after they are over.
How will he be able to carry out an attack?
Nadim said that planned US military exercises in the coming days could serve as cover for real operations.
He said the US could use electronic warfare and cyberattacks to disrupt Iran's radar and communications networks. Stealth bombers and fighter jets could then penetrate air defenses in complete silence, striking command centers and missile bases.
But Iran would not be defenseless in the event of conflict, experts argue.
Iran has cruise missiles capable of threatening warships in the Persian Gulf, as well as ballistic missiles that can hit bases in the region. Iran even hinted at this, placing a large banner in a main square in Tehran over the weekend showing a US aircraft carrier being hit by a barrage of missiles.
Even if Washington opts for a largely symbolic attack, Iran is likely to respond in kind, Nadimi said./REL
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