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For the first time in many years, Viktor Orbán's rule no longer seems invincible...
Almost two decades after first taking power, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing the most serious political challenge of his career.
Continuously falling ratings, a strong opponent who not only catches up with him but also surpasses him in the polls, as well as increasingly frequent rumors within Fidesz itself of a possible change in leadership, are shaking Orbán's long-term dominance on the Hungarian political scene.
The latest public opinion polls from January 2026 show that the political balance in Hungary is changing rapidly.
A survey conducted by the Zavec research agency, on a representative sample of 1,000 citizens surveyed between January 19 and 24, and published by the independent portal Telek, shows that the opposition Tisa party, led by Péter Magyar, enjoys 49 percent of voter support, while Orbán's Fidesz stands at 39 percent.
According to this survey, Tisa has been clearly profiled as the main alternative to the current government, marking strong mobilization especially among young voters and those living in urban areas.
Particularly significant is the fact that Tisa enjoys twice as much support in Budapest and among highly educated voters, while Fidesz continues to maintain its base mainly among voters over the age of 60.
Similar results are also found in a survey by the Median agency, published by HVG and analyzed in detail by the 24.hu portal. According to this data, Tisa's lead over Fidesz has increased even more among so-called "safe voters."
If two months ago the difference between the two political blocs was around 10 percentage points, in January it widened to 12 points in favor of the opposition. The concrete figures clearly illustrate the scale of the challenge Orbán faces: among voters who already know who they will vote for, Tisa has 51 percent support, while Fidesz has 39 percent; among undecided voters, Tisa stands at 49 percent, while Fidesz has 41 percent; among the general population, Tisa collects 40 percent of the support, while Fidesz only 33 percent.
The Median survey was conducted between January 7 and 13 through telephone interviews, with a margin of error of up to ±3.5 percent.
As Daily News Hungary reports, even the government's intensive campaign, which included financial incentives, additional pensions, tax breaks and other measures that critics describe as economically unsustainable, failed to restore the electorate's lost trust.
Independent polls have shown that for months, Tisa has had about 400,000 more potential votes than Fidesz, a gap that, according to analysts, cannot be easily neutralized even by the Hungarian electoral system, which traditionally favors rural areas.
The latest data suggests that Hungary is entering a new political phase, where for the first time in many years, Viktor Orbán's power no longer seems invincible./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "The Geopost"
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